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Tories Set To Win Election
Former Member
Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
Tories win election ratings bid
So what is it like knowing your country is about to be controlled by a "racist", "lying", "scare mongering" Iraq war supporter?
So what is it like knowing your country is about to be controlled by a "racist", "lying", "scare mongering" Iraq war supporter?
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p.s , you live here too bud.
btw...the chances of the tories winning are about 100 000-1
Polls clearly show they are equal with Labour. Anyone who has researched past polls and election results will know Conservative voters have a habit of voting more consistently and in numbers greater then the pre election polls usually indicate.
The only poll that shows the Conservatives equal with Labour is from the Torygraph
Labour would like you to think so.
I say risk it.
i disagree with the core values of the conservative party. i am gay, middle class, female, liberal, animal rights activist etc.... a tory party in power would be hell
he does not represent real people! and will be gone after the election.
Are you actually on the party payroll?
I don't believe that the Tories are going to win. A Labour win, albeit with a reduced number of seats, is almost certain. One reason to believe that is that almost all polls point to a Labour victory.
Frankly, your opening point about the number of people who saw the Tory PPB (12.8m) and the Labour PPB (11.9m) is pretty uninteresting.
However, you do raise an interesting point about opinion polls. The underestimation of the Tory vote was most pronounced in '92. Two points:
And they don't split people up by constituency. The average Tory Constituency has 75,000 population, the average Labour is 65,000. The Tories need to get about 10% more of the popular vote than Labour to gain an overall majority.
if you think that the conservative party care about the proles, you are sadly mistaken.
"if i vote lib dem is that my vote wasted, as i dont want to see a Troy rule"
That was the jist of it I believe.
ARGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG
Bopz
Oh good, I am pleased, I haven't been pulling my weight. Glad someone is.
Actually in this area (surrey heath), the labour people are telling us to vote for lib dem, because labour know they have no chance here, and its the best way to try to remove the tories.
thats a poor aproach to take towards democracy. I don't claim to know alot about the mainstream political scene in the U.K. but it sounds alot like the U.S.
Lib dem=Green Party
labour=Democrats
Tory=Republicans
and if it's anything like the U.S. the Labour are farther to the right than they might seem.
All the pollsters have differing methods of surveying opinion - the net, phone or in person; then how do they weigh it - only those certain to vote? everyone? some other magic formula? MORI in particular have been interesting - they went from a 5% Conservative lead when the election was called to a 7% Labour lead this week, while the others have had a tie widening to a small Labour lead.
Also remember that it is harder than ever to get people to talk to pollsters - only people who are really interested in politics are likely to go onto a pollster's website to vote; people may be out when the pollsters phone and there are a lot of people on the Telephone Preference System so they cannot be contacted legally; people are less willing to stop in the street for pollsters etc.
Furthermore, the electorate is more uncertain than it has been for years - I think the statistic was something like only 25% were uncertain who to vote for when the election was called in 1987 and 1997 - this figure is now over 40% and people are much more willing to change their support if they have made a decision!
I still think the old chestnut about pollsters overstating Labour support still applies, this is not new. People often tell the pollsters what they think they should say rather than what they feel - and the Conservatives have an image of being a party of selfish people so it looks better to say you support Labour. In the 80s people said they felt the most important issues were unemployment, the health service, schools etc and that they felt Labour had the best policies on this - yet they still voted Tory because not many people want to go up to a stranger and say "I'd rather have a nice tax cut thanks.".
I don't think the Conservatives will win, but I seriously doubt these polls that are predicting another 100+ seat majority. Personally, I'm following the bookies estimates which seem to suggest a Labour majority of between 50-60 seats.
On the subject of whether you should risk voting Lib Dem or whatever, I would go to the BBC's election website and have a play with Peter Snow's swingometer - then I'd follow this procedure:
If you live in a currently Conservative seat - go for it.
If you live in a Labour seat which they could lose but still have a majority - go for it
If you live in a Labour seat which if they lost would cause a Hung Parliament - go for it
If you live in a Labour seat which if they lost would lead to a Conservative government - hold your nose and vote Labour.
I mean, most of what is being said about polls and voting is just related to the 1992 fiasco isn't it? The pollsters have been running scared ever since Major walked back to number 10.
It's always been more of a cheerleader for the Right than a pollster.