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Georgie vs Russia

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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    For what I hear the immense majority of the population there feels Russian and want to be part of Russia- or at least not part of Georgia.

    Now, excessive military force aside, I had been told repeteadly that self-determination and the wishes of the locals is what counts. If that is no longer the case, can we have Gibraltar back then please?
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Aladdin wrote: »
    For what I hear the immense majority of the population there feels Russian and want to be part of Russia- or at least not part of Georgia.

    Now, excessive military force aside, I had been told repeteadly that self-determination and the wishes of the locals is what counts. If that is no longer the case, can we have Gibraltar back then please?

    To an extent I agree. However, for obvious reasons the UN (and 99% of its members) will usually only agree to boundary changes if all parties agree - which is why you got a peaceful seperation of Czechslovakia, but Bosnia has large parts who'd like to go to Serbia and Croatia, but can't and why Turkish speaking Cyprus is only recognised by Turkey.

    And no you can't have the Gib :D
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    lets just hope russia ends this once and for all by taking back ossetia and not continuing any conflict.

    Although i feel it's not going to end until russia have the pipline in Georgia. In that case it's going to be horrible to think russia controls the oil pipline.
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    lets just hope russia ends this once and for all by taking back ossetia and not continuing any conflict.

    And when Russia wants another bit of a different country?
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    The attack is mostly a stunt to completely destroy any chance of Georgia joining NATO. At the Bucharest summit Russia made outright threats towards Georgia if they were to join causing Germany and France to refuse to offer them a membership action plan. However, they did say they'd review Georgia's membership in December which obviously angered the Russians and gave them a window of opportunity to act.
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    budda wrote: »
    It certainly seems to me that although Georgia started this action Russia have been pushing them towards it for a long time.

    By the sound of it they have been handing out Russian passports in South Asetia for reasons that seem a little dodgy. Surely loads of immigrants into Russia wouldnt be popular, it can only be so that they have a constitutional obligation to help them and therefore justification for military action.
    There has been a lot of bad blood and tit-for-tat actions for a long time now, and a lot of parties are to blame.

    The US is not without guilt either. By all accounts it is up to its ears in Georgia and has been using the country to get at Russia at several levels, from intelligence gathering to gaining a foothold at a highly strategic location. Georgia's President's statements could have been written by the White House press office, and his cries yesterday that unless we intervene Russian tanks could be rolling into European cities next were too ludicrous for words.

    Perhaps we should all be grateful that Georgia had not been admitted into NATO already, as Bush had appearntly wanted, or we might have been dragged into a war against Russia (WW3 anyone?).
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Aladdin wrote: »
    There has been a lot of bad blood and tit-for-tat actions for a long time now, and a lot of parties are to blame.

    The US is not without guilt either. By all accounts it is up to its ears in Georgia and has been using the country to get at Russia at several levels, from intelligence gathering to gaining a foothold at a highly strategic location. Georgia's President's statements could have been written by the White House press office, and his cries yesterday that unless we intervene Russian tanks could be rolling into European cities next were too ludicrous for words.

    Perhaps we should all be grateful that Georgia had not been admitted into NATO already, as Bush had appearntly wanted, or we might have been dragged into a war against Russia (WW3 anyone?).

    Doesn't take long to blame Bush does it? At the end of the day they may have had some minor involvement, but the responsibility falls 99% between Russia, Georgia and Ossetia - though you can argue where it falls between them.
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Well to be honest I would feel a bit cranky myself if my former Cold War adversary kept 'buying up' (for want of a better expression) countries I share a border with and proceeded to either install advanced radar and missile stations on my very doorstep or urge those countries to join NATO.

    No excuses for Russia targetting civilians or initiating a larger war on Georgia of course. Though analysts believe such war would serve the double purpose of torpedoing future attempts by Georgia to join NATO and give an implicit warning to nearby countries regarding letting the US to install Star Wars missile shield stations on their land.
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    South Ossetia has been rebelling against Georgia since 1918, Russia's actions have little if anything to do with the USA missile shields.
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Have to agree with Aladdin that the reason the US is interested is because it wants (another) puppet state next to Russia. Neo-imperialism as I put it a while back, America seems only interested in putting its foot into countries if it helps extend it's virtual influence.

    So its as much an encroachment on Russia's borders as it would be if they'd lined tanks up on the border. Obviously there's tension there between the two old superpowers and I think ultimately it comes down to that more than anything else. Georgia is small enough to nearly be insignificant for Russia, with the grief it will have to endure because of the conflict.

    Maybe its a finely tuned plan (cynical mode on) in order to make Russia look like evil aggressors in the eyes of the world. Timed to coincide with 08/08/08, too... 1500 reported civilians dead in Osetta (which is really a tiny area remember, about the size of a medium-ish county in the UK) in the time between Georgia's 'crackdown' and Russia's intervention.

    Controversial here... but all of America's friends in the middle east / west asia area seem to get involved with an awful lot of 'collataral damage'.
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    If we invade countries for spying on each other I assume you'll all be supporting UK strikes on Paris any day now (to say nothing of a mushroom cloud over Moscow after the assassination of a UK citizen).

    But lets be fair and admit that this isn't the reason. The Russians want control of the oil and Georgia wasn't playing ball, nor did it want to become a Russian puppet, but align itself to the West. I'm cynical enough to recognise the way the world is and that Russia was always going to spank Georgia down and we aint going to do anything about it and of course its in the US interests in having another pro-Western and democratic state. But trying to pretend in some way the invasion and counter-invasion is anything to do with the US is more to do with finding the normal bogeyman than reality.
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    I disagree, I think the way that Georgia acts and the way Russia has responded is definately influenced a lot by Georgia's association with the west. You find the same tensions all over the world where East meets West.

    I remember playing a game not so long ago, and as an Island ruler you have the choice whether to align yourself with America or Russia.

    I don't think it's about spying, I think it's about making it politically difficult for your rivals in the 21st Century. If we make best friends with Georgia - even if really they aren't that crucial to us - then it can make things awkward if Russia tries to be awkward with us because we can get our mates to be awkward with Russia.
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    ShyBoy wrote: »
    I disagree, I think the way that Georgia acts and the way Russia has responded is definately influenced a lot by Georgia's association with the west..

    Er that and oil is what I said. But it's not because of spying its because Russia want's Georgia to dance to its tune and georgia didn't want to
    I remember playing a game not so long ago, and as an Island ruler you have the choice whether to align yourself with America or Russia.

    Tropica - good game, but I'm not sure I'd use it as evidence on International Relations
    I don't think it's about spying, I think it's about making it politically difficult for your rivals in the 21st Century. If we make best friends with Georgia - even if really they aren't that crucial to us - then it can make things awkward if Russia tries to be awkward with us because we can get our mates to be awkward with Russia

    Isn't it up to Georgia who it's friends with? It prefers to be pally with wealthy, democratic societies rather than a poor autocratic one and who can blame them. It's not like their association with Russia has been a happy marriage.

    Oh don't get me wrong - I know realpolitik and it was always going to end in tears. But I'm not sure why the US should be castigated for trying to be friends with a society struggling towards democracy and recovering after years of dictatorship. It's a bit hypocritical to complain that the US is sometimes friends with bad regimes and then complain when its also friends with good ones.
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    The reality is, Russia has secured most of the break away speratist areas with troops and is still rolling on with tanks and total air dominance, the Georgian military is almost 100% surrounding the capital to protect the government, abandoning the rest of the country, and public opinion, though FAR from pro-Russian is very much swun against the Georgian Government for getting them into a war with Russia then could never fight or win.

    If the Russians were smart they would simply roll over Georgia completely and seize the country, the people wouldnt resisit too heavily and would most likely fall into line, given the history of the last 100 years. Russia stamps its authority and makes a statement to the world to show it is now once again a Superpower (although this time around it is Economically powerful as much as militarily powerful). This is essentially the reversal of Afghanistan for the Russians, Afghanistan was their big defeat, Georgia is shaping up to be their big "comeback" victory.

    No country will stand up to Russia, and no country will stand up to China, essentially these 2 nations are showing they are back and they are Superpowers and America is weak and shakey with a collapsing economy (obviously it is cyclical and will bounce back but media scare-mongering being what it is will make out something different), and an over-stretched armed forces that hasnt the money, man power or resources to match up anymore.

    This is more about making a statement and securing an oil pipeline then anything else.
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Russia's not a superpower not even close (neither's China, but we'll leave that for another day). It would be like us invading Southern Ireland - sure we could do and frankly as we've got nukes there's not going going to be a line to push us out. But it wouldn't mean we're strong enough to re-establish the British Empire and we'd have plenty of snipers and bombs to contend with.
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    As I see it its rather simple, Georgia has a government which is disliked by Russia, so they have set up a situation which was bound to lead to problems, in they roll and down goes the government.

    The West will tut and say nice things but will do nothing and Russia will have made a very important point to all the countries on its boarders.

    Its really very similar to the murder in London, it was supposed to be nasty and public to send a message.
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Speaking of the West saying nice things, it's interesting to observe the contrast between the reaction provoked by this conflict, and a certain other two summers ago.
    [George W. Bush] cited evidence suggesting that Russian forces may soon begin bombing the civilian airport in the capital city.

    "If these reports are accurate, these Russian actions would represent a dramatic and brutal escalation of the conflict in Georgia," Bush said.

    Incredibly enough, Bush did not have a problem at all with Israel bombing the fuck out of Beirut International airport during the Israel-Lebanon war two years ago. Indeed, he found nothing wrong whatsoever with any of the actions Israel took, even though they were strikingly similar (targeting of civilians, bombing of cities many miles away from the actual war zone, etc etc) to what Russia has been doing.

    You couldn't make it up, really...
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Seems like Russia have got what they want so they are pulling back, by the look of it they have effectively anexed South Ossetia because they have said they will not allow any Georgian military in.
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    budda wrote: »
    Seems like Russia have got what they want so they are pulling back, by the look of it they have effectively anexed South Ossetia because they have said they will not allow any Georgian military in.

    I hate to be pro Russia (again) but maybe it's for the best. Of course, not for Georgia, but it seems to me that S. Ossetia (or a significant part of it) doesn't want to be part of Georgia anyway and it's population is to some extent victimised by the rest of Georgia. With 1500 (reported) civilian deaths in the hours before Russia intervened, I think it's a bit rich of them to argue they're the innocent ones and Russia is the big bad bully.

    Not that Russia has done it for humanitarian reasons, but then, we didn't go into Iraq for humanitarian reasons either. I think I would have been more happy intervening in Northern Ireland for example if it was invaded by the Republic of Ireland and many innocents had been killed (assuming here, that N. Ireland is part of Ireland but rebelling and not the UK) which is more comparible to the Georgia situation than going and flying planes, tanks, men over a couple of thousand miles to make sure the region stays loyal to the our ally.

    I don't know if anyone even noticed, but in George Bush's speech yesterday, he said:

    "These actions jeopordise Russia's relations with the US and Europe."

    I mean, fair enough, speak for himself, but watch the vid. He says it in a way which implies he has dominion over Europe and gets to speak on our behalf. A minor point, but it annoyed me. Around 2m15s -

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/nol/ukfs_news/hi/newsid_7550000/newsid_7555800/7555806.stm
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Also, George Bush is on his way out, at this point he can say anything he likes, but it doesnt mean anything. No one is going to boycott Russia or do anything more then talk at them and about them.

    Besides, what Russia has done isn't as bad as Iraq, i mean, at least Georgia is a bordering country and has serious reasons for wanting to secure the area in dispute.
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    so it looks like the ceasefire is off, as the russians have decided to setup checkpoints in georgian territory, most likely as a response to german prime minister merkel's invitation to georgia to join NATO....as of today it has also officially broken off all cooperation with NATO.

    meanwhile a russian general has implied a nuclear strike on NATO member poland is an option if they install the US missile shield there. in response the russians have sent their only aircraft carrier to Syria and plans to setup naval and air military bases there after striking a deal with president Bashar Al-Assad. They've also agreed to sell Iran advanced weapon systems that they previously said they wouldn't, Israel must be loving this...it's no wonder oil is up $8 today!
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    I think it's time we bring our troops back, and start building the shelters, because unless someone with some brain cells steps up and takes the mantle we're all fucked.
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    ShyBoy wrote: »
    I hate to be pro Russia (again) but maybe it's for the best. Of course, not for Georgia, but it seems to me that S. Ossetia (or a significant part of it) doesn't want to be part of Georgia anyway and it's population is to some extent victimised by the rest of Georgia. With 1500 (reported) civilian deaths in the hours before Russia intervened, I think it's a bit rich of them to argue they're the innocent ones and Russia is the big bad bully.

    There is blame on both sides of course, I heard someone from Human Rights Watch interviewed on the radio last night and they said that they could find no evidence that anywhere near as many as 1500 people were killed by Georgia. They said that it was 'dozens not hundreds' but that there was evidence of indescriminate shelling of some sections of the city which is a war crime.

    Given the seperatists in SO are funded by Russia this has been a proxy war of sorts for a while.

    Given the threat posed I see absolutely no reason for Russia to justify destroying as much of Georgias military as it can find.
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