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the miracle of china.

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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Originally posted by morrocan roll
    it is highly controlled despite reforms.
    it is very easy to steal the service economy from us and the chinese have millions upon millions of highly educated people.
    the financial centre of the universe can also be moved at the click of a switch or the press of a button.
    the UK is already largely a service economy and there are thousands hee with degrees who cannot get suitable employment that meets their qualifications.
    a service economy wont feed 60 million people for much longer ...especialy if we go it alone.
    things change very fast these days. as somone said ...look at china's high tech industries that didn't exist three years ago.
    of course china needs western markets ...whats that got to do with the UK'S place in the scheme of the things?
    all countries are becoming ever more reliant on others.
    are you suggesting that the chinese will be kind enough to bail out the pound should we leave europe/

    Why would they steal the service economy from us? This is nonsense. Most of the services are supplied because of domestic demand, not foreign. Trade doesnt comprise that large a chunk of the GNP.
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Originally posted by minimi38
    Why would they steal the service economy from us? This is nonsense. Most of the services are supplied because of domestic demand, not foreign. Trade doesnt comprise that large a chunk of the GNP.
    the service economy could slowly or rapidly go elswhere and anywhere.
    the world you live in changing faster than most are willing to keep up with.
    we once had a thriving motorcycle industry that was seen as a permament rock of the U.K's economy.
    the japs destroyed it in no time at all by flooding the worlds market with cheap but reliable hondas ...they sold them cheaper than it cost them to make them. same with a lot of goods ...they took over the worlds electronics etc ...but you can't see things like that happening with our fragile service sector?
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Read an economics text book. I'd rather go smoke this joint than argue nonsense :p
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Originally posted by minimi38
    Read an economics text book. I'd rather go smoke this joint than argue nonsense :p
    i'm already smoking one thankyou.
    if you think it's nonsense then fine ...but i think people who refuse to see the huge changes taking place economicaly in this world are in for a series of big shocks.
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    How do smaller countries survive at the moment? What is the richest country in the world in terms of GDP per head.... no its not the US, not China, not Europe (its not even a country!), its not Australia, not Japan, nor Canada, not Russia....

    Its measley little Luxembourg. What other countries are increadibly rich; Monaco rings a bell....


    Is that not a very very naive question to be even asking never mind us answering?
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    I recognise the changes fine. I want to work in Shanghai after i earn a degree. Its just this rubbish about them stealing our services away. Its not going to happen. Most services in the UK are for each other, ie if i go to the gym thats a service. Are the Chinese going to buy all our gyms? No. If i walk down the bank to put money in it, are the Chinese going to take over all our banks? Not a chance. I want my car fixed. I hire a mechanic, are the Chinese going to provide cheaper mechanics with a better service? Haha no. Are the Chinese going to provide better hairdressers? Beer brewers? ISPs? Even if they do, and Britain looses a few hundred thousand jobs to China, like the US losing textiles manufacturing to China, this just frees up workers to move to a more profitable industry, a benefit of world trade. Unemployment will rise in the short term and decrease in the long term.
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Originally posted by Rocksteady
    How do smaller countries survive at the moment?

    the moment is rapidly changing.
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    And you think that smaller countries will one day be forced to join into a world superpower? :rolleyes:
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Surely it all depends if the free world trade and specialisation will seriously benefit each nation.. I have my doubts
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Originally posted by Rocksteady
    And you think that smaller countries will one day be forced to join into a world superpower? :rolleyes:
    i think it makes sense that smaller countries join forces and become huge trading blocs. in fact i believe those who won't do that will face growing economic hardship.
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Originally posted by Rocksteady
    Surely it all depends if the free world trade and specialisation will seriously benefit each nation.. I have my doubts

    I dont think he understands these two concepts.
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Originally posted by minimi38
    Read an economics text book. I'd rather go smoke this joint than argue nonsense :p
    talking about nonsense in this thread ...didn't you say something about china not having an educated workforce?
    how then do they have a nuclear capability ...space capability ...electronics plastics engineering etc etc?
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Originally posted by morrocan roll
    i'm already smoking one thankyou.
    if you think it's nonsense then fine ...but i think people who refuse to see the huge changes taking place economicaly in this world are in for a series of big shocks.

    but the big changes are always happening and people just get on with their lives. Over the past 100 years at least there hasn't been a long period where the economies have been stable and haven't changed. Ages ago, like in the industrial revolution England was always a major textile producer. France had it's agriculture and wines! Spain had iron and steel, and boats :p. But now the economy is more dynamic, you can fill a newspaper everyday with the changes that happen.

    I forsee China becomming the most powerful country in the world, allied with the south east asian countries by economic ties (who afterall, wants to play against the largest economy in the world?) and they will have their own consumership from Japan, tourist destinations etc. Eventually China will have sufficiently wealthy citizens so it does not have to export as much (or depend on it at least). The economy is controlled currently, to stop growth going out of control, because if it does then there will be a recession afterwards and China wants a steady controlled growth because it's still steadying itself on its feet as a world trading power.
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    I'm not denying theres a growing middle class, the cities have lots of highly educated workers but China's cities are a far cry from the rest of the country. The vast majority are still uneducated peasants.
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    According to this site http://www.uis.unesco.org/ there are 12 million Chinese in tertiary education :lol: out of a population of 1,500 million :lol:
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    A realitively uneducated workforce was perhaps the correct term...

    Who has benefited from NAFTA? I dont think it has been Canada or Mexico.....

    If you are outside a world trading block you are not loosing out. Any imports that you have to pay tarrifs on you subsidise and any exports you stick a tarrif on to pay for it! Do you not think free trade is an overrated theory too heavily branded about.
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Originally posted by minimi38
    I'm not denying theres a growing middle class, the cities have lots of highly educated workers but China's cities are a far cry from the rest of the country. The vast majority are still uneducated peasants.

    Change takes time... in the cities where travel and trade is most prominent change occurs the fastest, in the isolated areas in small villages, it does not influence the big government. Stalin didn't like the idea of slow change and tried to bring everyone together in big communities - grand scae farming etc.

    Sometimes it's best not to rush things...
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Originally posted by minimi38
    I dont think he understands these two concepts.
    i'll tell you what i do understand.
    the americans are seriously concerned about the chinese becoming the dominant economic world power ...theres no stopping that happening.
    when one and a half billion people are on an industrial/economic surge like never before seen in history ...somthing has to give ...many things will change.
    the impact on the environment ...globaly will be very serious.
    the impact on the price of raw materials will be fucking huge.
    china is sucking in the worlds recourses at an alarming and accelerating rate ...there is nothing you can compare it with.
    they have recently done deals with south american companies for timber and the food that will be grown in it's place ...bringing in masive earnings to those south american countries ...the economic scene is therefoe changing drasticaly and rapidly ...you are being left behind in your thinking if you believe that the growth of china on this scale will not change the economic face of the planet.
    food is going to become more expensive over the next five years as china feeds it's growing cities.
    more and more oil is going to be heading in that direction as is more and more investment.

    if you believe all is going to stay the same as it ever was for smaller non manufacturing countries then i'm afraid you have your head up your arse.
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Originally posted by morrocan roll
    i'll tell you what i do understand.
    the americans are seriously concerned about the chinese becoming the dominant economic world power ...theres no stopping that happening.
    when one and a half billion people are on an industrial/economic surge like never before seen in history ...somthing has to give ...many things will change.
    the impact on the environment ...globaly will be very serious.
    the impact on the price of raw materials will be fucking huge.
    china is sucking in the worlds recourses at an alarming and accelerating rate ...there is nothing you can compare it with.
    they have recently done deals with south american companies for timber and the food that will be grown in it's place ...bringing in masive earnings to those south american countries ...the economic scene is therefoe changing drasticaly and rapidly ...you are being left behind in your thinking if you believe that the growth of china on this scale will not change the economic face of the planet.
    food is going to become more expensive over the next five years as china feeds it's growing cities.
    more and more oil is going to be heading in that direction as is more and more investment.

    if you believe all is going to stay the same as it ever was for smaller non manufacturing countries then i'm afraid you have your head up your arse.

    I was refering to world trade and specialisation. Look up the latter and it will show why each country will benefit from a strong China.
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Of course it wont stay the same but what remains is a relatively large and developed country on the international scene, the UK, more than able to cope on its own two feet... Surely if food prices rise that is fantastic for the UK farmer who seam to grow too much these days? A price hike in food exports would be fantastic for the UK economy....
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Originally posted by TheShyBoyInTheCorner
    Change takes time... in the cities where travel and trade is most prominent change occurs the fastest, in the isolated areas in small villages, it does not influence the big government. Stalin didn't like the idea of slow change and tried to bring everyone together in big communities - grand scae farming etc.

    Sometimes it's best not to rush things...
    the policy at the moment is all about moving millions off the land and into the cities. there ids nothing slow about the change in china.
    how the hell anyone can believe that the U.K can prosper on its own with it's pound is beyond me.
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Why wouldnt they be able to prosper??????

    Switzerland of all places has one of the strongest currencies in the world!!!

    Did you know that London trades 60% of the worlds internatioanally listed shares and deals in 1/3 of the worlds money transactions every day, yet we have the £!!
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Originally posted by Rocksteady
    Of course it wont stay the same but what remains is a relatively large and developed country on the international scene, the UK, more than able to cope on its own two feet... Surely if food prices rise that is fantastic for the UK farmer who seam to grow too much these days? A price hike in food exports would be fantastic for the UK economy....
    i live in a farming comunity and the farmers would love the prices they get to rise. but that means the price i have to pay will also rise.
    as a farming country we are very efficient but i'm afraid we do not have the acerage to compete with south american companies on price.
    the americans are that concerned about this shift in power that i would bet money that within the next ten years ...south american countries will be invaded by the north for these very economic reasons.
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Originally posted by Rocksteady
    Why wouldnt they be able to prosper??????

    Switzerland of all places has one of the strongest currencies in the world!!!

    Did you know that London trades 60% of the worlds internatioanally listed shares and deals in 1/3 of the worlds money transactions every day, yet we have the £!!
    and i firmly believe all that is going to change.
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Originally posted by morrocan roll
    how the hell anyone can believe that the U.K can prosper on its own with it's pound is beyond me.

    What a good answer:
    Did you know that London trades 60% of the worlds internatioanally listed shares and deals in 1/3 of the worlds money transactions every day, yet we have the £!!

    As long as theres a favourable interest rate investors will buy pounds. Why do you think so many rich arabs live in London?
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    The EU overproduces 20 billion tonnes of food a year and still with spare capacity..... if price rises output across the globe will increase 10 fold... if it got so bad I would grow some of my own food. Surely If we were an independant nation the government could control our food exports and keep the price low...??

    "as a farming country we are very efficient but i'm afraid we do not have the acerage to compete with south american companies on price."

    Ok so hold on.. In one sense you are saying prices will rise because China is sucking in resources yet in another sense you are telling us that prices are going to fall because it will be cheap to grow food in S. America??

    Are you telling me S. America is going to be invaded by the North in the next 10 years for economic reasons?!?!? Where do you buy the weed you smoke?
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    "and i firmly believe all that is going to change."

    Yes perhaps it would all move to Frankfurt if we joined the Euro....
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Originally posted by Rocksteady
    The EU overproduces 20 billion tonnes of food a year and still with spare capacity..... if price rises output across the globe will increase 10 fold... if it got so bad I would grow some of my own food. Surely If we were an independant nation the government could control our food exports and keep the price low...??

    "as a farming country we are very efficient but i'm afraid we do not have the acerage to compete with south american companies on price."

    Ok so hold on.. In one sense you are saying prices will rise because China is sucking in resources yet in another sense you are telling us that prices are going to fall because it will be cheap to grow food in S. America??

    Are you telling me S. America is going to be invaded by the North in the next 10 years for economic reasons?!?!? Where do you buy the weed you smoke?
    i didn't say prices would fall i said the south american companies will take the bizz hands down ...we can't compete. the deals have aready been struck and the british farmer won't get a look in on any large scale.
    yes europe does over produce ...another reason we should be a main player in europe. that is the only way our country will get a look in.
    small things ...like my isp ...an irish voice used to answer the help line ...now it's an asian one. all kinds of stuf is moving to asia and if you can't see other more important stuff moving there then i can't understand why.
    what is so strange about americans invading other countries for economic reasons?
    they may well work out economic warfare to use the south instead of bullets but i can assure you americ is going to need to control more and more resources to have any chance of staying at the top in this rapidly chamging world.
    time will tell.
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Originally posted by morrocan roll
    yes europe does over produce ...another reason we should be a main player in europe. that is the only way our country will get a look in.

    By paying for France's over production?

    Originally posted by morrocan roll
    small things ...like my isp ...an irish voice used to answer the help line ...now it's an asian one. all kinds of stuf is moving to asia and if you can't see other more important stuff moving there then i can't understand why.

    Outsourceing benefits the economy.
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    "south american companies will take the bizz hands down ...we can't compete"

    Ok.. so they are going to take our farming Business? So what is the problem if they can produce it cheaper they have an absolute or a comparative advantage do they not?

    "yes europe does over produce ...another reason we should be a main player in europe."

    The overproduction means our farmers get a very low price for producing food which is heavily subsidised by the EU and by you the tax payer. The some of this overproduction is dumped on the 3rd world markets driving their own farmers out of business because it lowers the prices and they cannot compete with free food.

    "small things ...like my isp ...an irish voice used to answer the help line ...now it's an asian one. all kinds of stuf is moving to asia and if you can't see other more important stuff moving there then i can't understand why."

    That is comparative and absolute advantage at work. Free trade means that companies will move where they produce the goods most cost effectively. It lowers the price for us in the west and we can concentrate on producing goods we do well in comparassion. It is arguably not a bad thing and our manufacturing has been moving away for decades yet we have replaced it with other production such as the UK's comparative advantage in financial services in the exact same way with the call centres. I know for a fact that a call centre opened this week in Belfast so it still shows you that they are operating within the UK and companies will not simply abandom their roots all the time.

    "americ is going to need to control more and more resources to have any chance of staying at the top in this rapidly chamging world."

    American companies control the resources not the government..... Surely it will not matter who controls the resources but mearly who can offer the best price to purchase those resources?
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