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Predicitions

Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
My predicition

Overall
Tories largest party, but without an overall majority
Labour second in votes and seat
Lib Dems third

Tories go in with a minority Government, but with Lib Dem support on some issues


England - same as overall, but Greens gain their first seat in Brighton and the BNP doesn't gain Barking


Scotland
SNP lose some seats to Tories and Lib Dems, but gain some from Labour and are largest party
Labour loose some to SNP and Lib Dems second largest
Lib Dem gain from SNP and Labour
Tories gain one or two from SNP

Wales (know least about them)
Lib Dems gain some from Labour and become largest party
Tories gain some from labour
Plaid also gain some from Labour
Labour loose to all three

Northern Ireland
DUP gain one from UUP, loose one to UUP and one to TUV
Sinn Fein and SDLP unchanged
UUP loose one and gain one
TUV gain an MP

Comments

  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Pretty much what he said, but without the regional breakdown, my blonde head can't cope with that!
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    I pretty much agree, but I think we'll end with LibLab pact and Gordon resigning. I don't think there is enough ground for Lib and Tory pact, electoral reform will always get in the way...
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    A hung parliament and another election this time (ish) next year.
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    MoK wrote: »
    I pretty much agree, but I think we'll end with LibLab pact and Gordon resigning. I don't think there is enough ground for Lib and Tory pact, electoral reform will always get in the way...

    I think the Lib Dems might have difficulty keeping Labour in power if they've got around 30% of the vote and I don't think the public would be happy to have two PM's foisted on them without a vote within only a couple of years. It would make the Lib Dems and Labour extremely unpopular and it would kill any chance of the Lib Dems being able to get a referendum through on PR

    In terms of policy I saw a chart which a Govt dept had prepared as part of the preparations for new Govt which suggested that on most policies the Lib Dems and Tories are closer than Lib and Lab. If the Lib Dems are in for the long game they'll work with the Tories and take what they can get. At local level they've worked with the Tories quiet happily, iirc they're are more Lib/Tory council pacts than Lib/Lab (though there's also a few Tory/Lab united in hatred of the Lib Dens). That said I don't think Libs and Tories will make a pact, I think it'll be a minority Govt where the Libs promise not to vote down the Budget in return for some of their policies (though not PR) being enacted. Depending on the negotiations if I was Cameron I might keep PR for local elections as a bone which could be thrown
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    I believe the Tories will win the largest number of seats, but will fall just short of a majority.

    Looks like Nick Cunt, sorry, Clegg won't be becoming Prime Minister after all. Delusions of grandeur shattered so cruelly. Ah well.
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    stargalaxy wrote: »
    I believe the Tories will win the largest number of seats, but will fall just short of a majority.

    Looks like Nick Cunt, sorry, Clegg won't be becoming Prime Minister after all. Delusions of grandeur shattered so cruelly. Ah well.

    Yeah, because the second chap from the left here...

    bullingdon-club.jpg

    would be a more desirable Prime Minister than Clegg, eh?
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Aladdin wrote: »
    Yeah, because the second chap from the left here...

    bullingdon-club.jpg

    would be a more desirable Prime Minister than Clegg, eh?

    And what the hell has that got to do with anything?

    What really irks me about the Cameron criticism is not that it's about the man's politics, or his record, it's about his upbringing. As if to say that one certain upbringing is more conducive to running the country better than other and that a good education somehow makes you bad and evil.

    The reverse snobbery on here is quite breathtaking at times.
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    It's not reverse snobbery. It's just that as we're about to enter the most difficult economic times in living memory, when services are going to have to be slashed and choices have to be made about what to cut and what to keep hold of, I don't want to be governed by a man who thinks his wife is "unconventional" because she went to a day school.
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    jamelia wrote: »
    ... I don't want to be governed by a man who thinks his wife is "unconventional" because she went to a day school.

    It is reverse snobbery. Of all the reasons not to vote for someone, this has to be pretty lame.
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Or perhaps you could credit me, and others, with some intelligence, and think that there's more to it than that? That the school he went to and his wife's astronomical levels of wealth are indicative of something else, something which I do consider is important?

    I think what you're calling reverse snobbery, most people would explain like this:

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/may/04/why-i-hate-tories-david-cameron

    Here's one reason I didn't vote Tory:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/johann-hari/johann-hari-welcome-to-cameron-land-1962318.html

    His policy on inheritance tax is another.
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    It is reverse snobbery. Of all the reasons not to vote for someone, this has to be pretty lame.

    No lamer than lambasting someone for calling a woman a bigot in the privacy of his own car.
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Hahahaha I wondered how long it was going to take someone to cite that wldly inaccurate guffstorm that Johann Hari passed t'other day.

    As a resident of Hammersmith & Fulham, Hari gets it very, very wrong indeed. For a start, he misses off every single good thing the council has done since the Tories have been in power, and secondly, anyone who has read Private Eye's Rotten Boroughs column in the past, I dunno, 10 years will know the true extent of Labour councils' pure evil and incompetence.

    Citing Johann Hari as a reason not to vote Tory is like citing Richard Littlejohn as a reason for balanced immigration.

    And criticising someone's background as somehow indicative of their ability to run the country is pathetic and is reverse snobbery.
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    And what the hell has that got to do with anything?

    What really irks me about the Cameron criticism is not that it's about the man's politics, or his record, it's about his upbringing. As if to say that one certain upbringing is more conducive to running the country better than other and that a good education somehow makes you bad and evil.

    The reverse snobbery on here is quite breathtaking at times.
    Here's a clue: see who I was replying to in my post.

    Having said that, I still think Cameron's a twat and he and his party by far the worst choice for office. Their upbringing is the least of my worries tbh.
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    is anyone else getting really antsy about tonight?
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    And criticising someone's background as somehow indicative of their ability to run the country is pathetic and is reverse snobbery.

    If I actually thought his background was a reason not to vote for him, I wouldn't have voted Lib Dem either, as Nick Clegg is just as privileged and establishment as Cameron.

    The difference is Cameron privileged and a member of the elite and he wants to continue having that privilege and prevent the redistribution of wealth. His policy on inheritance tax however makes me want to vomit. It's despicable, and morally bankrupt.
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    is anyone else getting really antsy about tonight?

    Yes indeed. I'm wondering where I should move to if the Tories get in....
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    For what's worth, I fear the Tories will just about win it outright.

    However, they should keep in mind that the staggering thing is that they're not 20 points ahead in the polls and with the election long in the bag.

    And they're not 20 points ahead because apart from the many millions of people who despise the Tories, many more are rather aprehensive about voting for them even though they think this government is well gone past its best before date.

    That tells you everything you need to know about Team Cameron, really... not even with a government that widely disliked and in disarray they can command a decisive majority. I can only hope they keep that in mind when they get in power and they don't set about fucking up every single public service this country has.
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    While we're talking about predictions...I really hope these turn out to be false, but I'm worried they will be correct

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/may/05/1983-cameron-victory-kinnocks-words.

    "I warn you not to be ordinary. I warn you not to be young. I warn you not to fall ill. I warn you not to get old." - Neil Kinnock, 1983
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    is anyone else getting really antsy about tonight?

    Yup! I've voted in many elections, but this is the first I can remember being really worried about. It's not even a party political thing. It is the idea that the commentators are saying that our financial situation might end up worse than Greece. Whoever wins, taxes are going to go up, and services and public sector salaries are going to be cut to make up the deficit. We are in for a very uncomfortable ride over the next few years.
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    stargalaxy wrote: »
    I believe the Tories will win the largest number of seats, but will fall just short of a majority. Looks like Nick Cunt, sorry, Clegg won't be becoming Prime Minister after all. Delusions of grandeur shattered so cruelly. Ah well.
    Looks like I may have got this prediction right, for once.

    And I'm definitely right when I say Johann Hari is an ugly troll and a complete cunt.
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    My predicition

    Overall
    Tories largest party, but without an overall majority
    Labour second in votes and seat
    Lib Dems third

    Tories go in with a minority Government, but with Lib Dem support on some issues

    Nah, that'll never happen. ;)
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Is it okay to feel smug about the fact that back in January, when slagging Goon and Blewitt, I said this:
    MoK wrote: »
    I'm also going to say that I don't think that the Tories will win the election. Best they can hope for is a hung parliament.
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    MoK wrote: »
    Is it okay to feel smug about the fact that back in January, when slagging Goon and Blewitt, I said this:

    Only if it was January 09 ;)
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Frankly the Tories should be worried. It has always been said this country is a (small c) conservative one. Until recently it was also a country very happy to elect the Tories to office time after time.

    That they couldn't manage an outright majority even though so many people are tired of Brown and Labour tells a story and a half.
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    The worry is more likely to be on the part of the demos.

    My prediction is that whichever unholy alliance makes itself comfortable in the catbird seat, the main course on the menu is almost certain to be austerity.

    In the terminology of those much maligned speculators that is a trade one does not want to be on the wrong side of.
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Aladdin wrote: »
    Frankly the Tories should be worried. It has always been said this country is a (small c) conservative one. Until recently it was also a country very happy to elect the Tories to office time after time.

    That they couldn't manage an outright majority even though so many people are tired of Brown and Labour tells a story and a half.

    The Conservatives had an impossible mountain to climb. The fact is they have made historic gains, despite failing to achieve an overall majority.

    However, who feels a little let down by the LibDems? Along with, I suspect, millions of others, I thought that Nick Clegg was the leader of a political party, and what he said during the debates was a reflection of party feeling as a whole. Alas, no. Now we are faced with the possibility of some sort of power-sharing pact, it turns out that he has to have the agreement of various committees, who are due to meet later. Of course, now I remember where the Lib Dems came from - the alliance of the Liberal party and the 'gang of four', the Social Democrats. Owing to policy differences, they had to come up with a constitution that satisfied both parties. My feeling is that, now, cooperation with the governing party might be the making of them, but discord within the ranks could be their undoing.
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