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McCain vs Obama
Former Member
Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
Looks like Obama's now got enough delegates so it's him vs McCain.
Both parties seem to have gone for the more left of the candidates, which is interesting and I'm not sure how much the democratic fuck up in Florida will piss Democrats of in that state and make them vote for McCain. Also whilst the racism of Americans can be overstated (imo it's less so than many European states) it could still swing enough voters against Obama to give McCain an edge in a close race.
That said will McCain's age also be a factor, and will he struggle to get the right-wing of the Republican movement out to vote. and whilst he's not that close to Bush and the war is not a big a factor as it was a few years ago, will he be tarred with the same brush?
So any early predictions?
Both parties seem to have gone for the more left of the candidates, which is interesting and I'm not sure how much the democratic fuck up in Florida will piss Democrats of in that state and make them vote for McCain. Also whilst the racism of Americans can be overstated (imo it's less so than many European states) it could still swing enough voters against Obama to give McCain an edge in a close race.
That said will McCain's age also be a factor, and will he struggle to get the right-wing of the Republican movement out to vote. and whilst he's not that close to Bush and the war is not a big a factor as it was a few years ago, will he be tarred with the same brush?
So any early predictions?
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Comments
The race factor is certainly going play a part in certain areas, as is McCains age.
McCain is also known for saying stupid things, a while ago he said that the economy doesnt interest him - given most voters think its the single most important issue he cant go around saying things like that.
I hope Obama romps home with a big win, not really because I'm a massive supporter of him but I think it would be good for the country and for the image of America abroad.
As depressing as it is, Bush actually won the last election pretty much fairly.
It will be interesting to find out how close McCain gets to Bush during the run off. He knows Bush is hated and he must hate Bush himself, his lies about him cost him the nomination in 2000.
McCain has already been criticised by the religious lobby for being too moderate. It'll be interesting to see whether he sticks to his principles or starts singing to their tune in order to secure their votes.
He may well say a few things to appease them, but I very much doubt he will change his tune too much. He doesnt need to, they certainly wont vote for the Democrat and like Tories here they are more likely to vote.
And talking of trying to get the religious vote, Obama gave a speach only a couple of days ago talking about how great Israel is.
Dont expect American politics to change all that drastically.
McCain will also lose some support within his own party for his wee swing to the left.
McCain - decorated military veteran, long service in the armed forces, 20+ years experience in national politics.
Reading stuff like this and knowing the Democrat's penchant for isolationism (Obama like Hillary is protectionist) I'd imagine senior Labour/Tory figures will be wanting a McCain win. If considering Britain's interests and issues of intl security, I very much hope McCain wins. Although, if I was an American - and voting solely on domestic issues I'd go for Obama.
It's too early to call as it really could go either way. McCain (like Clinton) has been around so long, any dirt is almost certainly already out in the open... With Obama I don't think anybody is quite as sure. It'll be a very interesting election... whether it's McCain or Obama though, either will be a lot better than Bush.
He's a lot better at giving speaches than Bush, and he was voted (sort of) in twice.
As for this magical dream of 'free healthcare' - dont count on it, Hilarys plan is fantastically complex and may well cost more than the current arrangement.
McCain losing some votes in the South or Midwest from the religious right isn't a big deal... A lot of the votes McCain risks losing are in solidly Republican states anyway. A low turn-out amongst Republicans in Texas - is never going to be enough to give Obama a win in Texas, and so McCain will still get the electoral college votes...
On the other hand, McCain being a moderate and pragmatic Republican with respect amongst independents and conservative Democrats, has a very good chance in swing states...
Which is fantastically complex and expensive already. I think the US Govt spends more on healthcare per capita than the UK, but covers less people
It's worth remembering that Congress in the US is very powerful on issues of welfare/health/tax/etc. The president can set the agenda but needs to work with Congress - and it's quite conceivable that there could be divided government (e.g. McCain in the White House and the Democrats controlling the House and the Senate). Although, if Obama gets the presidency and the Democrats keep Congress then - I'm sure an Obama victory could make a big difference to the average American..... but Americans (perhaps being hostile of a powerful federal government) seem to like voting for divided govts, voting split-ticket, e.g. McCain for pres, and Dem for Senate.
They'll still vote for him regardless, you really think the religious right are going to come out and vote for a black liberal?
It's changing though all the time. Have you read Arthur Shlesinger's- Imperial Presidency? The President has been taking power from Congress on domestic and foreign policy since FDR, sometimes even willingly by Congress.
I dont know about the government, but Americans personally spend a massive amount more on healthcare than we do, and millions are without any cover at all.
The only way I could see a NHS working there is on a state basis, with richer states giving some money to the poorer ones to level out the coverage.
He may well try and run with Hilarys idea of universal healthcare.
It was on my reading list but no
:yeees:
http://www.creators.com/opinion/chuck-norris/3-surprises-awaiting-obama-in-iraq.html
Softly mention New Orleans as much as possible
Stress the torture problems around the American involvement in Iraq and the war on terror to put McCain in a difficult position
Push back as hard and as agressively against any negative campaigning produced by the Republican
and I reckon you could have a Democrat president.
I wouldn't mention New Orleans too much - questions might also be asked about the Democrat Mayor and Governor and their failings.
I'd also not mention torture - McCain has come out strongly against it. Also given how badly he himself was tortured by the North Vietnamese it'll act as a reminder to the electorate that he's a pretty tough cookie, with real experience of the sharp end.
I'd also say that if history is any judge the negative campaigning will come as much from the Democrats as the Republicans
If Obama wants to win he needs to concentrate on the economy and show himself as a new face, not a Washington insider. And distance himself from the Clintons - Democrats love her, but she won't pull in any disillusioned Republicans or independents, she's too decisive.
Talk about not seeing the beam in your own eye and all that.
http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/archives/2007/10/obama_bush_and_cheney_cousins/
http://pollclash.com