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Snow
Former Member
Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
in General Chat
Anyone know if we are meant to get any this year?
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Hmph, send it to me
haven't seen any of the white stuff yet though.
The meteorological models seem to be changing their ideas almost on a daily basis for the weather over Christmas. I have taken that into account when offering my solution.
A colder spell of weather is on the cards just before Christmas, but at this stage I am not too sure how much snow this is likely to bring. Pressure is then set to rise, so there will be a good deal of dry weather through Christmas, but it looks like becoming wetter and milder as we go into January.
Saturday 20 December to Friday 26 December
This is probably the most difficult week in the year to forecast the weather since so much hinges on it. Most people would love to see snow falling to give that seasonal look to the weather, but the chances of it happening again this year are quite small.
My predictions for this week are still at odds with the model long range forecast, which is always a worry. I think that high pressure may build to the west of Ireland. The winds will then come in from the north, so it will feel very cold. As the high slips into Europe, the winds will swing into the south, but even at this stage, being confident about the weather for Christmas Day is very difficult.
It looks like a cold weekend with sunshine and some snow showers especially over Scotland, Northern Ireland and the hills and mountains of England and Wales. The snow showers will die out early in the week as the pressure starts to rise, and although there will be a lot of sunshine by day it will feel cold with widespread sharp frosts at night. There will also be some patches of freezing fog which could well hang about all day in some places.
By Christmas Eve, southerly winds will move in across Scotland and Northern Ireland, bringing cloudier weather with rain, which may be preceded by some snow. This is most likely over the far west of Northern Ireland and the extreme northwest of Scotland, with much of the central and southern parts of Scotland and the eastern areas of Northern Ireland staying predominately dry, but quite cloudy and windy.
England and Wales will start the week on the cold, frosty and foggy note, but very gradually, by Christmas Day, it will become somewhat milder and cloudier. It should stay dry with most of the fog and frost disappearing from the valleys, but there could then be some low cloud shrouding the hills.
Saturday 27 December to Friday 2 January
As the high pressure moves to the east of the British Isles so the winds are likely to swing into the south or southeast. At the same time, low pressure will be moving into the west of Ireland bringing the winds into the southwest, and allowing weather fronts to push in from the Atlantic.
For Scotland and Northern Ireland it will be a largely cloudy, but reasonably mild, week with bands of rain pushing in from the west followed, in turn, by sunny spells and showers. The showers will become quite heavy at times with strong and gusty winds.
Generally the winds will come in from the southwest but, behind the cold fronts, they may swing into the northwest for a time, perhaps giving some sleet or snow in the showers, especially over the northern mountains.
England and Wales will have quite a lot of cloud, especially in the west, but most places are expected to stay dry, and it should become milder everywhere.
Saturday 3 January to Friday 9 January
Low pressure is set to dominate the weather during this first week in January, so for all of the country it looks like a predominately cloudy week with bands of rain pushing in from the west.
The rain will be heaviest over the north and west of Scotland, Northern Ireland and the western coasts and hills of England and Wales, but as the rain bands push east they will be followed by sunny spells and showers.
For much of the week it will be on the mild side, although the odd colder spell, in the more showery weather, is also likely.
Saturday 10 January to Wednesday 14 January
I think the low pressure will still be with us right though this period, so again it will be staying cloudy and windy, in fact it could be quite stormy at times in the north and west of the United Kingdom with periods of rain followed by brighter showery weather.
Once again, although overall it will be on the mild side, one or two cold snaps are possible giving sleet or snow showers especially over the hills and mountains in the north and west of the country.
It looks like a typical winter with a spell of very cold weather in the second half of February
January 2004
The meteorological models for this far ahead have been playing games with us. They have been suggesting how the weather pattern was likely to pan out during the winter.
Earlier they hinted that cold, anticyclonic weather would dominate. Although this seemed very realistic at the time, through the early part of the autumn, it did not hold up as we moved towards winter.
What I am now suggesting might be the most likely weather this winter is based on the present model patterns which, at the present time, seem to be holding up well.
1-12 January
I now think, rather than the cold anticyclonic weather that I was suggesting last month, that this could well be a period dominated by low pressure in the Atlantic.
Much of the first couple of weeks of the New Year could well be cloudy across most parts of the United Kingdom with bands of rain, followed by sunny spells and showers. There could be period of particularly heavy rain and very strong winds on the 2nd or 3rd of January.
13-22 January
There are signs that an area of high pressure could start to build to the east of the United Kingdom pushing the low pressure further back into the Atlantic.
So for eastern Scotland and all of eastern England the damp, mild, wetter weather will gradually give way to drier, brighter skies with some sunshine. However, fog and frost are likely at night.
Northern Ireland, together with western Scotland, Wales and the western parts of England are likely to stay on the cloudy side with further light rain from time to time. It will stay quite mild here but will be on the windy side.
23 January to 31 January
During this last week in January the indications are that the high pressure will give way and allow wet and windy weather to push eastwards across all areas of the country. It will still be quite windy but milder in the east.
February 2004
At this stage, I think February could be a month of two halves. Mild and wet at first, but it should become dry and much colder later.
1-14 February
The mild southwest to westerly winds will dominate the scene at the beginning of the month giving most places a lot of cloud and periods of rain.
This in turn will be followed by sunny spells and showers as the weather fronts progress eastwards across the country. The winds could well move into the northwest from time to time behind the cold fronts bringing somewhat colder, brighter weather but also giving some frost patches at night.
15-29 February
This is when I think we shall see a change, and possibly give us the coldest period of the winter. The models seem to indicate high pressure building and holding for the rest of the month.
All parts of the country are likely to become much colder with some severe frosts at night. Freezing fog is also likely to give icy stretches on all untreated roads and pavements.
Some of the fog could well last all day, and where it does, mainly low lying river valleys, the temperature will stay below freezing both day and night.
Too Long! Bad! Bad rocks! *slaps wrist*
Spot the geographer.
But anyway, weve had a few heavy frosts, but no snow. Tis freezing today though!
It is blooooooody freezing... it took me ages to thaw out so i could type properly after i wandered down the road earlier! Was also very foggy this morning.
Only advantage is now i keep my beers and things on the windowsill to chill, so nobody can nick them from the fridge!
If its anything like what I experienced in London in january - have fun!
Lots of snow, strong winds... walking got you caked in the stuff. The most amusing thing is seeing drivers having no idea how to drive in conditions.
Though I will be really pissed if England get lots of snow and whilst i'm in scotland we get none!
Really. All you guys want is a bit of drizzle and some cold winds that aren't too strong. You know how to deal with it, and you can forever go around saying, "Weather's grim. Might brighten up later."
</rant>
Yes, I've read Bill Bryson too.
Hot, sunny days at Christmastime don't seem right... I remember it was sunny last year on Chrismas Day and it totally spoilt the atmosphere...
:yes: Same here
But some snow on January 6th would be great :thumb: