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Economic expert predicts global crash

Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
A leading economic expert has warned that a global crash and recession is imminent on the back of record highs in real estate, stocks and energy, combined with a devaluation of the dollar and continued "speculative bubble thinking".

Robert Shiller, the Stanley B. Resor Professor of Economics at Yale University told an audience at the annual Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) Week that a sharp downward correction is due in the global markets.

Shiller stated:

"Perhaps we have gotten a little too confident in the global economic growth," said Shiller. "The problem is high oil, stock and real estate prices. I believe that a substantial part is speculative bubble thinking. We have gotten too confident of the prices in these markets,".

"The unwinding of these markets is the most serious risk facing these markets today," Shiller added.

With the effects of the credit crunch hitting more and more lower level lenders, it is clear to see that the fallout is spreading and propagating a general decline. We are seeing the unfolding of an overall meltdown that represents a gutting of the United States by neo-mercantilist institutions bent on the formation of a new global monopoly.

Shiller also pointed to the futures market, such as that of the CME in Chicago, which now predicts a major, ongoing decline over the coming four years.

We are witnessing the unfolding of a crash exactly as predicted by Former World Bank Vice President, Chief Economist and Nobel Prize winner Joseph Stiglitz last year.

Stiglitz agreed that the process of hijacking and looting key infrastructure on the part of the IMF and World Bank, as an offshoot of predatory globalization, has now moved from the third world to Europe, the United States and Canada.

Stiglitz warned that the signs were there with plummeting real estate prices in the U.S., stating that a global economic depression could only be avoided if a correction was made.

But no correction will be made because the World Bank/IMF/Globalist doctrine betrays a focused agenda to deliberately foment economic turmoil, riots, and then enforced bondage to eternal debt. We have witnessed this time and time again.


http://www.arabianbusiness.com/504237-global-market-crash-imminent-warns-expert

Comments

  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Sounds about right to me TBH.

    I'm glad I work on goverment contracts, cant get much more secure than that here.
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    We'll see, life goes on roughly the same as always, I doubt we'll be seeing bread lines anytime soon.
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    With all our tax payers billions tied up in Northern Rock, our government might get caught with it's proverbial pants down with less cash to catch us if we fall ... :grump:
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Vialls wrote: »
    But no correction will be made because the World Bank/IMF/Globalist doctrine betrays a focused agenda to deliberately foment economic turmoil, riots, and then enforced bondage to eternal debt. We have witnessed this time and time again.

    Erm, ok then.

    I agree we're due for a correction, but it's not exactly unexpected, it's been predicted every year for the past 4 or 5 years. It's already happening to a good extent because the free market allocates resources itself.

    Really unless you're investing or something it's not a big deal, there will still be jobs and there will still be food to put on the table. Those who've overstretched on their mortgages will struggle as interest rates rise but not to ridiculous levels. We have experienced sustainable growth for the large part rather than at previous points of this century where demand was influenced to stimulate growth which just creates inflation.

    There are always some predicting doom and so on but really until it happens I'm not convinced. We still have a surplus of food, China is still selling cheap goods, all the basics of the economy are healthy. Optimistic markets are just part of the business cycle.
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    ShyBoy wrote: »
    Erm, ok then.

    I agree we're due for a correction, but it's not exactly unexpected, it's been predicted every year for the past 4 or 5 years. It's already happening to a good extent because the free market allocates resources itself.

    Really unless you're investing or something it's not a big deal, there will still be jobs and there will still be food to put on the table. Those who've overstretched on their mortgages will struggle as interest rates rise but not to ridiculous levels. We have experienced sustainable growth for the large part rather than at previous points of this century where demand was influenced to stimulate growth which just creates inflation.

    There are always some predicting doom and so on but really until it happens I'm not convinced. We still have a surplus of food, China is still selling cheap goods, all the basics of the economy are healthy. Optimistic markets are just part of the business cycle.

    Do you know what a recession is?
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    ShyBoy wrote: »
    Erm, ok then.

    Is that in reply to the part of my post which you have quoted? If so I suggest you read this.

    http://www.gregpalast.com/the-globalizer-who-came-in-from-the-cold

    I quote, "Stiglitz is no conspiracy nutter ranting about Black Helicopters. The man was inside the game, a member of Bill Clinton's cabinet as Chairman of the President's council of economic advisors."
    We still have a surplus of food, China is still selling cheap goods, all the basics of the economy are healthy. Optimistic markets are just part of the business cycle.

    Who has a surplus of food? We rely heavily on imports. Brussels and the major retailers are throttling the life out of our food production industries, plus we export most of what we DO produce. "Next week the FAO is expected to say that global food reserves are at their lowest in 25 years."

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2007/nov/03/food.climatechange



    As for all the basics of the economy being healthy. No. The dollar is in freefall. Yes, there have been periods of dollar weakness before and yes, while currencies do overshoot their true long-term values, they do bounce back. Maybe in five years the dollar will be strong again. Maybe. But there are a few factors that make the situation a bit different this time.

    1. The current fall is going further than declines in the past.

    2. The US deficit is much larger in real terms and as a percent of GDP than in previous cycles.

    3. Trust in the financial sophistication of the U.S. has been shattered, the idea that the U.S. has more resillient markets than other countries won't hold water any more.

    4. There are other places to invest. E.g. this year, for the first time ever China is adding more demand to the global economy than the U.S. India is also looking pretty attractive. Anyone who invested in India five years ago would have done wonderfully well, far better than they would have done had they invested in the US.

    5. The US no longer appears quite the safe haven for investments that it used to, for a variety of reasons. One has been resistance in Congress to foreign takeovers. Another has been the change in visa requirements ? why invest in the US if it is awkward to visit your investment? Can you really trust the US legal system to be neutral in a dispute between a foreigner and a national?

    6. Finally, there are now alternatives to the dollar. There is the euro, of course, and foreign central banks are building up their reserves in euros. The pound is now being held much more widely in central banks too. Also there are a basket of other currencies, including the Chinese yuan, which international investors feel they should hold. Ten years ago, the options were much narrower.
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    is there going to be a recession? - yes, probably

    is this going to lead to food riots and the meltdown of society? - no, probably not
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Do you know what a recession is?

    Yes I do, but I don't think we're headed for the 'next great depression' where money will be worthless and people will be trading radishes. The supply side of the economy is relatively healthy. The economy is inflated, it's not helped by the US trying to make things look nice by keeping interest rates low (hence why the dollar has fallen in value).

    Life will go on, people will manage. Pay is relatively lower now in many industries than it was 30 years ago, so if the supply of goods had remained constant you'd be worse off. But it's not, heavy investment over the past decade due to a global boom means there is more stuff floating round than ever. We have reached a point where interest rates are starting to rise and there is less money to be made, so yes the economy will slow down.

    But it doesn't mean the world's going to end, as there will still be jobs, and there will still be food in supermarket shelves. There still is a sizeable surplus of food in the UK, a lot still gets thrown away around the world to keep markets healthy.

    I expect those with a lot of debt will find themselves increasingly constricted because interest rates will rise to keep inflation at bay. The market will always correct itself towards some sort of median, it's not just going to collapse - especially considering the world economy has never been this prosperous.
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    More dire warnings.

    RHINEBECK, N.Y., Nov. 19 (UPI) -- A financial crisis will likely send the U.S. dollar into a free fall of as much as 90 percent and gold soaring to $2,000 an ounce, a trends researcher said.

    "We are going to see economic times the likes of which no living person has seen," Trends Research Institute Director Gerald Celente said, forecasting a "Panic of 2008."

    "The bigger they are, the harder they'll fall," he said in an interview with New York's Hudson Valley Business Journal.

    Celente -- who forecast the subprime mortgage financial crisis and the dollar's decline a year ago and gold's current rise in May -- told the newspaper the subprime mortgage meltdown was just the first "small, high-risk segment of the market" to collapse.

    Derivative dealers, hedge funds, buyout firms and other market players will also unravel, he said.

    Massive corporate losses, such as those recently posted by Citigroup Inc. and General Motors Corp., will also be fairly common "for some time to come," he said.

    He said he would not "be surprised if giants tumble to their deaths," Celente said.

    The Panic of 2008 will lead to a lower U.S. standard of living, he said.

    A result will be a drop in holiday spending a year from now, followed by a permanent end of the "retail holiday frenzy" that has driven the U.S. economy since the 1940s, he said.


    http://www.upi.com/NewsTrack/Business/2007/11/19/forecast_us_dollar_could_plunge_90_pct/4876

    This is not some nutcase predicting doom; these predictions are coming from all quarters.

    There are several things to consider concerning the fiat monetary system, it has an inherent terminal point that will eventually breach the systems viability. A few years ago the system reached its Peak Practical Lifespan where the economy is no longer able to tolerate what would once we considered minor disruptions, such as small interest rate hikes. The next step on the terminal time-line will be when the system reaches it Maximum Possible Lifespan when massive financial dislocations begin to occur rapidly as domino falls upon domino. The unraveling of the economic rope will be so rapid and intense that nothing the Federal Reserve does, or other the global Central Banking Cartels, will be able to stem the complete systematic annihilation of the monetary foundation of the global economy.
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    The economy has always relied on the promise currency gave you, that you could exchange it for gold. Regardless of whether this was true or not, economies have been running and will continue to run. People will still need food to eat, and people will still produce food to sell in order to gain more goods.

    So, if the market is going to crash and we're going to suffer from inflation, what are we going to do? We just have to go with it. There will still be jobs to do - selling fruit on the corner even - and there will still be food. If it gets dire enough then people will have to start their own organic gardens.

    But lets look at this in perspective. It's 2007, the UK has an incredibly strong financial service sector. If there's a recession and companies and going into liquidation, it's going to be us that is doing all the books!

    I don't think it's going to implode and we'll be back in the stone ages, that gets predicted far too much. It's due for a correction, and it may be tougher for some people but by and large people will just have to get on with their lives.
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    that was a half serious comment
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