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Crime, is it coming or going?

As you may know a raft of crime figures came out yesterday painting an odd picture of crime in the UK.

Overall recorded crime fell again, same as (I think) every year Labour has been in power.

However, recorded violent crime has gone up by 9%, but the British Crime Survey says that its gone down.

Thoughts?
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Comments

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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    It depends WHAT you label "crime",and WHO does the labelling.


    seeker
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    seeker wrote:
    It depends WHAT you label "crime",and WHO does the labelling.

    Facinating. As always Seeker you get to the heart of the matter and making it boring.
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Well the overall crime has gone down. And that is good.

    Violent crime has gone up- that's not good. Any type of crime that goes up is bad. However, the overal crime has gone down, and that is the most important thing.

    Naturally those with agendas see fit to pick and choose whichever statistics suit them...
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    bongbudda wrote:
    Facinating. As always Seeker you get to the heart of the matter

    Fact

    bongbudda wrote:
    and making it boring.

    Opinion



    seeker
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Its crimes of violence against the person and burglaries that really concern people, and its interesting to see that such crimes have risen and the gun culture in our larger cities is increasing

    A question I'd like to raise is the issue of reporting crime. For example if you're a retailer, shoplifting costs the UK consumer in excess of £1.8 Billion per year, (thats based on 2000-01 from the BRC), so current figures are probably much higher. It is a major criminal activity and often has strong links with drugs.
    Yet shoplifting, or retail crime in general, isn't on the Police radar!
    The government don't include it in their community crime reduction plans nor do local councils, so this whole area of crime becomes "invisible".
    Retailers are so fed up waiting for the police to arrive to arrest a shoplifter they often let them go, & Blunkett has made it a non-criminal offence for thefts under £200. What about the druggie who hits 5 shops for £150?
    Most of the £1.8 Billion per year stolen from shops ends up in drug dealers pockets, yet the actual crime that produced the money in the first place isn't even recognised as such!

    So if this crime is "massaged away", I am dubious about the so-called crime reduction figures overall.
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Aladdin wrote:
    Violent crime has gone up- that's not good. Any type of crime that goes up is bad. However, the overal crime has gone down, and that is the most important thing....

    Strangely though the government thinks the British Crime Survey is more accurate, and gives a better picture of crime because it also allows for non reporting.

    Plus I heard on Radio 4 that in 60% of cases which are recorded as violent there is no actual injury.
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Rich Kid wrote:
    Most of the £1.8 Billion per year stolen from shops ends up in drug dealers pockets, yet the actual crime that produced the money in the first place isn't even recognised as such! .

    Perhaps if we removed drug dealers by legally supplying addicts then this wouldnt happen.
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Aladdin wrote:
    Well the overall crime has gone down. And that is good.
    I don't believe it, nor do many other people in this country. The level of reported crime may overall show a decrease but thats only because people are fed up and frustrated by the slow response by the Police and the lack of action thereafter.

    What about the actual solving of crimes reported? Our rates in this country are abysmal, again it fuels peoples fear that theres little point in reporting crime because they never get solved.
    Our Police have been reduced to office workers and social workers cowered by the PC-driven agenda.
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    bongbudda wrote:
    Strangely though the government thinks the British Crime Survey is more accurate, and gives a better picture of crime because it also allows for non reporting.

    Plus I heard on Radio 4 that in 60% of cases which are recorded as violent there is no actual injury.
    Now that you mention it I'd like to know what 'officially' constitutes a violent crime (cases where physical force is applied against an individual are obvious of course).

    Would forced entry into a house be considered violent crime? Or smash-and-grab vehicle crime?
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Rich Kid wrote:
    Our Police have been reduced to office workers and social workers cowered by the PC-driven agenda.

    What does that even mean?
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    i do think a lot of petty crime goes unreported, because as RK says the culprits will never get caught.......phone and bag snatchers aren't life threatening but they are fucking annoying.......as for the overall trends, i think people are a lot safer than they think.........incidentally i do think younger people are more of a menace than they used to be, vandalism, threatening behaviour, 10 year olds cruising the street in a crew i mean wtf.......all i can say is i feel a lot safer in the country than when in a city, even tho i have never had a problem regarding crime.......because there are more people in a concentrated area, the likelihood of a crime per square foot is probably higher, and this is why people are afraid, they hear a lot of stories, the chances of a crime actually happening to them is fairly low.........
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    I've always felt safer in London than I ever do in smaller market towns, especially if you are going out for the night. There seems to be far more drunken brawls in smaller towns.
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Aladdin wrote:
    Now that you mention it I'd like to know what 'officially' constitutes a violent crime (cases where physical force is applied against an individual are obvious of course).


    For example, TAXATION ,or is that UNofficial?


    seeker
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Its all a con, don't believe that Labour is reducing crime, its simply hiding crime.

    http://www.rense.com/general64/tre.htm
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    LOL... that's an extremely reliable news source, that is... :D
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Rich Kid wrote:
    Its all a con, don't believe that Labour is reducing crime, its simply hiding crime.

    http://www.rense.com/general64/tre.htm

    You certainly know how to pick convincing sources don't you?
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Blagsta wrote:
    You certainly know how to pick convincing sources don't you?

    It is from the Telegraph, which although its right leaning is normally fairly decent.
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    bongbudda wrote:
    It is from the Telegraph, which although its right leaning is normally fairly decent.

    If its from The Telegraph, I'm sure he can find it on The Telegraph's website, not some lunatic conspiracy theory site.
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Not surprising though is it? All governments do it.
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    I'd also be curious if this took into account the new way of reporting violent crime, in that a pub fight is not one fight, its X number of people fighting, each being a crime.
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    just to point out that the posts of no relevance to this debate have been removed
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Blagsta wrote:
    Not surprising though is it? All governments do it.

    Oh that makes it right then does it?

    According to the National Crime Recording Standards (NCRS), detection rates for all recorded crime for 2003-04 were only 23.5%, the same as the previous year.
    Doesn't strike me as being very effective, the odds are stacked in favour of the criminal getting away with it.
    So out of 1,400,000 recorded crimes that year, (how many went un-recorded I wonder?), 1,071,000 were not detected, ie the criminals got away scot-free.
    No wonder crime is rising, the criminals know when thet're on to a good thing.

    Also what I find interesting is what the Police count as "detected crime"

    - charging or issuing a summons to an offender
    - issuing a caution, reprimand or final warning to an offender
    - having the offence accepted for consideration in court
    - counting an offence "cleared up" but taking no further action if
    offender, victim or essential witness is dead or ill
    victim refuses to give evidence
    offender is under age
    Police or CPS decide that no purpose would be served by prosecution
    time limit of 6 months for coming to prosecution has been exceeded

    So plenty of ways of massaging the figures. I'd guess if you eliminated the above and included the to-date non-recorded crimes, the detection rate would probably struggle to make double digits.

    I don't blame the Police, I lay the blame firmly at Labours door for making the Police's job much harder by all the bureauracy they've introduced.
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Didn't the government change the way crime is recorded and actually warned that figures would go up as a result? Apparently the previous system was far less accurate.

    Now we're being told by some the government is hiding the "true figures"... Mmm...

    All bollocks according to Polly Toynbee

    Some extracts:
    For all the shocking headlines, figures showing 9% more violence was recorded by the police does not mean violence went up: it almost certainly went down by 10%.
    48% of "violent" crime reported in yesterday's figures caused no injury whatsoever.
    every 24% rise in prison numbers only cuts crime by 1%
    What terrifies is fear that crime is "out of control": fear that the world is going to the dogs is embedded deep in the human psyche. The old think life was better when they were young, translating that personal loss into general pessimism about the present. An aging population will grow more afraid of the scary, lawless young; so unlike their own dear, disciplined days. The universal myth of some golden age set in the imagined time just beyond what we can remember suggests the world has been in moral decline since time began.


    So as with many other things, cynical and disgusting manipulation by newspapers with an agenda with push are making people see things far worse than they are actually are. But what's new? They've been doing the same fucking thing with everything else (NHS anyone? :rolleyes: )
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Rich Kid wrote:
    Oh that makes it right then does it?.

    Did I say that? What it does mean however, is that you're barking up the wrong tree. Instead of blaming Labour, how about expanding the terms of the debate a little bit?
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Love the Orwellian flavour to the quote:
    figures showing 9% more violence was recorded by the police does not mean violence went up: it almost certainly went down by 10%.

    What is more worrying for most people is that there are more Police but they're catching fewer criminals

    The overall detection rate is disgraceful, and its truly amazing that the number of detections per Police officer is a mere 10 per year.

    Why I wonder? Anything to do with Labours obsession with form-filling & red tape?
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Rich Kid wrote:
    The overall detection rate is disgraceful, and its truly amazing that the number of detections per Police officer is a mere 10 per year.

    Source? (he says with no hope at all)

    And compared to what? It could have been 1 a year when the Tories were in, none of us know!
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Source? (he says with no hope at all)
    Read the NCRS.
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Rich Kid wrote:
    Source? (he says with no hope at all)
    Read the NCRS.

    I presume you have read them, I've just gone through the 'violence' one http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/pdfs2/countviolence04.pdf

    and it seems rather reasonable to me, one crime recorded for each victim.

    And yes, more serious crimes do over ride lower ones, as in the I break into your house and kill you is one crime of murder. But this, would actually make the statistics look worse, the level of murders and serious offenses compared to lower ones would be higher.
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    I was talking about the "inflated" so-called detection rate.
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