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Behind in the polls

Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
Why are the Tories only averaging 30% in the opinion polls?

If there were a general election tomorrow and the results of it were based on recent polls, then New Labour would still be the government.

To be the next government the Tories need a swing of 10%, based on the popular vote figures from the 2001 election.

Comments

  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Obviously they are not appealing to the electorate, or minor parties are beginging to eat away at the popular vote.
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    why would any under 50 non middle englander vote for the tories, totally unappealing as a party
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Originally posted by lukesh
    the tories don't seem to be a great alternative who will make everything better.

    Perhaps.

    But after SEVEN years of New Labour and considering the fact that Labour aren't that popular then they should be further ahead.
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Originally posted by kaptin pikarrrd
    Perhaps.

    But after SEVEN years of New Labour and considering the fact that Labour aren't that popular then they should be further ahead.

    i must admit that i hate labour with a passion but at the end of the day, if i was english and it was election day i'd vote for labour, sorry, the other parties fall way short, labour hasn't done that bad a job, just in the past year really.
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    in some aspects labour has actually done a good job, like health it has got easily better, and education has got better, just some aspects i disagree with like theres too much choice students at ages when they should just be getting a all round education still
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    I do think that new labour will stay in power because as Renzokuken said alot of small parties e.g. UK Independant being to eat away at the popular vote.
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Originally posted by wheresmyplacebo
    in some aspects labour has actually done a good job, like health it has got easily better, and education has got better, just some aspects i disagree with like theres too much choice students at ages when they should just be getting a all round education still


    I think the NHS is improving. Those drop-in centres are good.
    I do think that new labour will stay in power because as Renzokuken said alot of small parties e.g. UK Independant being to eat away at the popular vote.

    Are all voters of UKIP ex-Tories though? OK, of the three major parties the Conservatives are the most Euro-sceptic but members/MP's of all parties are Euro-sceptic too.
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    put it this way, would any of you'se like a return to Tory policy, or choose a Lib Dem policy, (of which i have no idea about because all they do is talk shit). maybe the tories will get another chance but they need young blood and a change in direction, too reactionary for me so they are.
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    What Tory or Lib Dem policies?
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Originally posted by kaptin pikarrrd
    What Tory or Lib Dem policies?

    i didn't mention nay in specific for a reason, i mean their whole policy as a party, yeh maybe tories have a great policy for pensioners or something like that but i'm sure if they got into power they'd fuck up public services just as much as labour have, same goes for lib dems, imo, labour have done a good all round job.
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    I thbik that the Tories are behind because they dont have a clear message to send the electorate.

    What they need is something like Thatchers Monetarism and Union bashing.

    I propose a promise to cut taxes extensively, with cuts in spending if need be. That would get a very sizable part of the electorate on their side.
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Originally posted by The Matadore

    What they need is something like Thatchers Monetarism and Union bashing.

    yeh so 1 million upper class twats can profit and leave the rest in the gutter :rolleyes:
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    yeh so 1 million upper class twats can profit and leave the rest in the gutter

    I dont want to debate Thatchers ministry in this thread, if you want to do that start one of your own. I must admit I have been guilty of this in the past.

    I simply used Thatchers messages as an example. Another would be Blairs promise of everything, including to make Britain a 'younger' country.
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    The Conservatives are not seen as an alternative to the New Labour party, either as an ideological alternative or as a results-based alternative. New Labour and the Conservatives are identical in terms of ideology, except New Labour can always count on a large swathe of Scuffer Britain who will vote Labour regardless of what they do.

    The Conservatives cannot regain control because they do not present an ideological alternative, as New Labour has stolen the centre-right of UK politics, and New Labour can convincingly argue that they are better at implementing the centre-right agenda effectively. The Conservatives are not in a position to set the political agenda and offer a real change of idea, and so the incumbent Government is almost always more likely to retain their seats.

    New Labour, now they have taken the centre-right, are in the majority because they have the centre-rightists' votes, and also the votes of Scuffer Britain.
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Originally posted by The Matadore
    I thbik that the Tories are behind because they dont have a clear message to send the electorate.

    What they need is something like Thatchers Monetarism and Union bashing.

    I propose a promise to cut taxes extensively, with cuts in spending if need be. That would get a very sizable part of the electorate on their side.

    Maggie's monetarism never worked! Her governments' abandoned aggressively targetting money supply growth when determining monetary policy.

    What further curbing of union activity is necessary?

    As for Labour heartlands, well the Conservative 'heartlands' are rural England. How do you think people in Surrey, Kent, Hampshire, Dorset, etc. vote?? I suppose the Labour hearlands are more densely populated (more people live in Liverpool or Manchester than rural Hampshire or Kent).
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    The Conservative heartlands are not as strong or as densely-populated as the Labour heartlands- the industrial north has more seats than the rural regions.

    The Conservatives always attracted the centre-right "stockbroker belt" constituencies, however New Labour has now attracted these votes and has delivered the centre-right agenda more efficiently than the Major administration.
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    The two best selling newspapers are the Sun and the Daily Mail and the best selling broadsheet is the Telegraph. Given that all three of these papers are right wing it’s unsurprising the Tories aren’t doing better.

    People will get fed up of Labour sooner or later like people eventually got fed up of the Conservatives.
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    I thought the Sun was a pro-Laobur paper?

    People hated the Tories under Major because of sleaze, the ERM fiasco and primarily because they were seen as incompetent.

    I don't detect the same feelings in the electorate today. If anything, Blair isn't liked because of the Iraq war.
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Well the Sun is definitely right wing, it was a strong supporter of the war for instance. Whereas the Mirror was anti-war and seems to be more left wing. Maybe the Sun likes to think of itself as being pro-Labour but if you pick it up and see some of the stuff in there like Littlejohn’s comment and the Sun says section it all looks pretty Tory.
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Originally posted by Kermit
    The Conservatives are not seen as an alternative to the New Labour party, either as an ideological alternative or as a results-based alternative. New Labour and the Conservatives are identical in terms of ideology, except New Labour can always count on a large swathe of Scuffer Britain who will vote Labour regardless of what they do.

    The Conservatives cannot regain control because they do not present an ideological alternative, as New Labour has stolen the centre-right of UK politics, and New Labour can convincingly argue that they are better at implementing the centre-right agenda effectively. The Conservatives are not in a position to set the political agenda and offer a real change of idea, and so the incumbent Government is almost always more likely to retain their seats.

    New Labour, now they have taken the centre-right, are in the majority because they have the centre-rightists' votes, and also the votes of Scuffer Britain.

    This is exactly it. Working class people are very loyal to thier party which is really the labour party. Where as middle and upper class people are more open minded so they will choose parties with better agendas. And the conservatives are doing nothing at the moment.

    As someone has already said they need a strong leader like thatcher who is passionate about things so they have a clear agenda.
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    The memories of the Major incompetency is still fresh in the memory, especially with Michael Howard. New Labour are hated because of the Iraq war, but this won't convert into Conservative votes because a) the Tories supported the war too and b) it is the left-wing who hated the war the most. People still don't trust the Tories to run the country better than New Labour.

    Corruption is off the agenda of political discourse too, which is helpful for Blair, who is the most corrupt Prime Minister in British history.

    The Liberal Democrats are the party who take Conservative votes, they always have been. The Tories and the Lib-Dems have the same voter demographic- middle-class professionals with the upper working class sometimes thrown in- and that is a big problem for the Tories.

    I'll be voting whichever party has the strongest chance of beating Blair in 2005 in my constituency.
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Originally posted by Disillusioned
    Well the Sun is definitely right wing, it was a strong supporter of the war for instance. Whereas the Mirror was anti-war and seems to be more left wing. Maybe the Sun likes to think of itself as being pro-Labour but if you pick it up and see some of the stuff in there like Littlejohn’s comment and the Sun says section it all looks pretty Tory.

    Being right-wing and pro-conservative aren't necessarily the same thing when it comes to newspapers. Oddly enough, despite the way the S*n reports, it has annouced itself to be, and everything about it's reporting screams, pro-blair.
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Originally posted by Fiend_85
    Being right-wing and pro-conservative aren't necessarily the same thing

    Of course not. Both main parties are conservative.
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    isn't it great for those of us being from Northern Ireland. You just always vote for the same party.
    Labour isn't the worst. They have helped bring in the round table discussions that eventually lead to the Good Friday Agreement and have launched the Patten proposals (not implemented but still), they have helped the nationalist/republican communities have a voice. Very little was achieved over here under Conservative rule. If it wasn't for the Iraq invasion then Labour would still be a very popular party. Like them or laothe them, noone wants to go back to the Thatcher days
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