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If/when the coalition wins the war.....

Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,324 The Mix Honorary Guru
what exactly should replace the Saddam Ba'ath regime?

Could a liberal democracy be successful in Iraq?

Comments

  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,324 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Not at present..

    The concept is just too alien for the iraqi people. Theyve been ruled by military dictatorship for 30 years, it wouldnt be an easy transition, even if they wanted to make it..

    Its up to them really..If they want to start toward democracy we will help them do so..If they want to go back to tribal rule of somekind, they are welcome to..Its all down to them..

    Democracy..Not for a good few years and even then, it will have to be enforced on a lot of people in the country which is not a good thing.
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,324 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Then is the question of who would win the first elections. Because there is a good chance the Ba'ath will not only be around but actually win the election. And what will the US do then? Re-invade?
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,324 The Mix Honorary Guru
    All of which assumes Iraq will remain in its current form. I think it's quite likely that we'll have a separate Kurdish state after the war and it's also possible that we'll have another division between the Sunni and Shi'ite Muslims. The problem with instituting a democracy in Iraq is that there is no single figure who could become the new Iraqi leader and any election will lead to at least one of the three aforementioned groups being dissatisfied with the result and could lead to civil war. Any new Iraqi leader will also have to come to terms with effectively being put in place by the Americans and this will have an impact on his relations with the Iraqi people. On the whole, I think it will be a hell of a mess and very hard to get democracy going in Iraq in its current form.
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,324 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Bush and Blair have promised that the Iraqi state will remain unchanged territorially, the want a federal structure.

    Balddo I am not sure why you think that some kind of cultural factors would prevent a successful democracy. Wasn't Iraq a democracy for a while in the 60's?

    I also would not want to use the word that 'they' the Iraqis will have any unanimous oppinion on what kind of state, that is the point of democracy but also its contradiction.......:confused:
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,324 The Mix Honorary Guru
    There's no "if". People here know that terrrorists think just hit America hard enough and it will back off.

    It's going to be done the way it was done in Afghanistan, Germany and Japan. First the military takes over...then the real people in Iraq form a democracy that includes all groups.
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,324 The Mix Honorary Guru
    problem with democracy - a lot of peoples preferneces are not represented in the decisions of the executive or the legislature....

    Iraq is going to need the right constitution.

    But surely this can't be imposed by the US, so it is voted for, but that itself is prone to the biaases of majority decision.

    A problem exists here...........
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,324 The Mix Honorary Guru
    The outlook is not so great for Afghanistan at present pnj. Sure, the monstruous Taleban have been removed, but nearly-as-vicious warlords are effectively in control, and democracy is still far away.
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,324 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Not to mention the fact that Afghanistan does not even now have any form of legitimate universally recognised democracy. What it has is a puppet regime installed by us which is confined in its sphere of influence to Kabul. Outside Kabul the Warlords remain in power and regional factionalism is as prevalent as it ever was.

    And you can in no way compare either Iraq or Afghanistan to the defeated nations of WWII. Different time, different political situations entirely.
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,324 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Originally posted by Aladdin
    Then is the question of who would win the first elections. Because there is a good chance the Ba'ath will not only be around but actually win the election. And what will the US do then? Re-invade?

    The Ba'ath party won't be allowed to run for office. Who d'you think will be running the elections? The UN? It'll be the US and only US approved parties will be allowed to stand.
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,324 The Mix Honorary Guru
    The outlook is not so great for Afghanistan at present pnj. Sure, the monstruous Taleban have been removed, but nearly-as-vicious warlords are effectively in control, and democracy is still far away.

    I know Aladdin. It does make me happy that girls are studying again.
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,324 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Simbelyne> ... and so the BS rhetoric used to justify this invasion will be all more undermined. The Bush admin has already shown its ineptitude in its bold calims of what would meet them in Iraq, so it is highly unlikely that they comprehend any better the nature of Iraqi political parties or their willingness to accept the dictates of a foreign power over how they will allow themselves to ruled.

    pnj> once again, only in Kabul and that represents a tiny fraction of the country's female population.
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,324 The Mix Honorary Guru
    pnj> once again, only in Kabul and that represents a tiny fraction of the country's female population.

    I know. But I'll take it as happy news.:)
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,324 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Taliban aside, I still wouldnt take it as good news. Its merely the first case study in the Bush camp's long planned corrupt global plundering.
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,324 The Mix Honorary Guru
    clandestine,

    Imagine an Afghanistan where women can recieve medical treatment and go to school. Imagine an Afghanistan where religious nuts don't run the place. America has a commitment to help Afghanistan achieve its full potential in the family of nations.
    I don't suppose you want the Taliban back, do you?


    The press has been reporting all sorts of claims and they have no supporting evidence. Bush never said the war would be over quickly. We shall be there for as long as it takes.


    Imagine trying to stop terrorism and murder in Iraq. Imagine offering democracy to an oppressed people. Imagine trying to prevent the proliferation of chems and biologics.

    I have come to the conclusion that liberalism as presently defined and practiced is not a political persuasion, it is a form of mental illness.:) :D:lol: :yes: :wave:
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,324 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Actually Murph, the mental illness is all that flowery presumption that you so eloquently imagine. Wonderful soundbite imagery which has proven its PR value beyond all doubt in you.

    The miscomprehension by the war advocates of the global rift and alienation that is being systematically exacerbated in Bush's crusade of acquisition is astounding. The consequences of our attempts to remake the world in our image, by hook or by tomahawk missile, are mounting, and when they catch up to us, the first casualty will be the naivete with which the nation followed these control lords so unquestioningly.

    As for soundbites, Ive heard Bush repeat that mantra repeatedly. Unfortunately what you don't get to hear is the rest of that phrase:

    "will be there as long as it takes...

    ... to take the spoils we came for!" :rolleyes:
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,324 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Originally posted by Balddog
    Not at present..

    The concept is just too alien for the iraqi people. Theyve been ruled by military dictatorship for 30 years, it wouldnt be an easy transition, even if they wanted to make it..

    Its up to them really..If they want to start toward democracy we will help them do so..If they want to go back to tribal rule of somekind, they are welcome to..Its all down to them..

    .

    Easter European states like Romania and Poland weren't democratic for the decades of Soviet satellite rule. Yet know they are democracies. What is the real difference?
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,324 The Mix Honorary Guru
    The differences include a legacy of self determination that preceded their absorption into the Soviet machinery of empire, coupled with a distinct cultural and demographic homogenaity which Middle Eastern nations do share.

    You cannot build legitimate comparisons of 20th Century European nations with the tribal factionalism of the Middle East.
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,324 The Mix Honorary Guru
    But the former Yugolslavia was communist and fell due to 'tribalism'. Pakistan was a democracy and is a Muslim nation, so Islam and liberal democracy are not mutually exclusive.
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,324 The Mix Honorary Guru
    "Yugoslavia" was an artificial state comprised of numerous smaller states all held together by the cult of personality under Tito, again bad comparison (especially given that it was a forced cohesion and never a democracy).

    Pakistan is a case where the strong man characteristic of Middle Eastern power plays is also well demonstrated. Musharrof came to power in a coup, which is in keeping with the very nature of what I previously wrote.

    Notwithstanding that, perhaps democracy is not in and of itself a complete stranger to the region, but that in no way negates the fact that you cannot "impose" nor "inspire" any credible democracy through foreign invasion and domination.

    All told though, as MR. has repeated numerous times, it would be foolish to accept the rhetoric of the Bush camp as to what they intend. A viable democracy in Iraq would threaten the hegemonic control that Washington and Tel Aviv have long awaited the opportunity to establish in the region. The risk that the will of the Iraqis might not include a generous disposition toward the West would be too great to waste all the money and effort.
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,324 The Mix Honorary Guru
    As Clandestine said, the situation and history of the middle east is totally different to europe.

    I also think its more to do with them being arabic than being muslim...I dont think their religion comes into it too much.

    The arab nations have always been ruled with an iron fist. Massive history of a totally different type of government and it worked well for them for many years.

    Pakistan has the benefit(?) of having a close relationship with and influence from the UK which allowed them to be a lot less harsh than other nations in the region.

    Europe was once ruled absolutely by monarchs, which can easily be compared to a modern day military dictatorship..Would it be so easy for us to go back to those days?

    You cannot force democracy upon people, they have to want it for themselves.
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,324 The Mix Honorary Guru
    But there is a difference between wanting a democracy and being able to get it.......

    I do not think any of us are in a position to state as a matter of fact that the people of the middle-eastern nations do not want democracy.....
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,324 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Indeed, but neither are we in a position to state as a matter of fact that they do want it...Yet we will still force it upon them.

    Its safe to say that most middle eastern citizens dont want a democracy for the simple reason of ignorance. Most of them dont know about the concept of democracy. Oh im sure they want more freedom, they are human like the rest of us, but the democratic system of government is totally unheard of for many.
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,324 The Mix Honorary Guru
    I know Jordan and many Jordanian citizens firsthand and I'm pretty confident they couldn't give a rat's arse about "democracy". They're fiercely loyalist to their crown and enjoy similar degrees of freedom to those found in many a democracy. Who the hell are we to comment on all those poor countries in the Middle East that don't know the wonders of democracy?
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,324 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Indeed BD,

    What some seem unwilling or unable to grasp is that in our Western societies, the progress toward democratic self determination was slow and systematic over hundreds of years of social, cultural, and economic change.

    Where fighting was necessary it was conducted by those within who hungered for that change not by bombs or invasions from without.

    Now that we in the west have lived for generations under the relative comforts of liberal democracy, it has become increasingly apparent how smug and self righteous many have become in their assumptions of the very nature of the freedoms they enjoy and the exportability of this way of life, and more importantly of thinking, on the back of tomahawk missiles, and militant foreign government overthrows.

    Just doesnt work that way folks and the backlash for our presumtpion will be all the worse for our self assuredness on the matter.
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,324 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Originally posted by Toadborg
    I do not think any of us are in a position to state as a matter of fact that the people of the middle-eastern nations do not want democracy.....

    I don't remember them ever being given a real choice, either.

    Problem with totalitarian regimes/kingdoms is that they don't encourage people to look towards democracy as an option.
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,324 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Originally posted by Balddog
    Indeed, but neither are we in a position to state as a matter of fact that they do want it...Yet we will still force it upon them.



    Like MoK says, they have never been given the choice, that is the whole point of democracy.......

    also i did not think we were frocing democracy anywhere apart from iraq and that is only a back-up motive (to look good for the media) to the true one........
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,324 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Originally posted by Murph the Surf
    clandestine,

    2)Imagine an Afghanistan where women can recieve medical treatment and go to school. Imagine an Afghanistan where religious nuts don't run the place. America has a commitment to help Afghanistan achieve its full potential in the family of nations.
    I don't suppose you want the Taliban back, do you?


    3)The press has been reporting all sorts of claims and they have no supporting evidence. Bush never said the war would be over quickly. We shall be there for as long as it takes.


    4)Imagine trying to stop terrorism and murder in Iraq. Imagine offering democracy to an oppressed people. Imagine trying to prevent the proliferation of chems and biologics.

    1)I have come to the conclusion that liberalism as presently defined and practiced is not a political persuasion, it is a form of mental illness.:) :D:lol: :yes: :wave:

    1)I am a fully paid-up member of the liberal party and I can tell you, it is a political stance; The British Lib Dem Party stands for the freedom of the individual, proper PUBLIC services in the PUBLIC sector and the rule of international law.

    2) But not by installing a puppet regime, letting in american corporations to run everything and anything (which is, I believe also the plan for Iraq as Rumsfeld recently invited bids from American corps to run Iraq's schools and hospitals after they occupy the country) and not allowing free or fair elections.

    3)True but others within the administration gave that impression.

    4)I can imagine it but it won't happen if the current administration carries on.

    I have come to the conclusion that American nationalism and the corrupt elite nepotists who control it through the media are killing the US and turning it into a global bogeyman. I can only hope and pray that we emerge from the dark age Bush and Blair are trying to drag us into a little older and wiser. Violence does not end violence. It prolongs it.
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,324 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Originally posted by Toadborg


    Like MoK says, they have never been given the choice, that is the whole point of democracy.......

    also i did not think we were frocing democracy anywhere apart from iraq and that is only a back-up motive (to look good for the media) to the true one........

    Ones mans desire is anothers hate.
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