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Your predictions

Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
What I want you to do is to answer each of these questions. Don't edit them; let's just leave them to stand. Answer them by yourself; leave comments on other people's for another time.

The Questions:

1) Do you think there will be a war with Iraq?

2) Do you think it will be based on a UN resolution?

3) Who do you think will participate?

4) How do you think the following political leaders will stand in 2004? (i.e. what do you think the coming year will do for their reputations?):
  1. George W Bush
  2. Tony Blair
  3. Saddam Hussein
  4. Jacques Chirac
  5. Ian Duncan Smith
  6. Charles Kennedy

5) Do you think that North Korea will take any further action, and if so, what?

6) How do you think the economy will respond to the war on Iraq? (Very general question, I know, but try it..)

Comments

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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Re: Your predictions
    Originally posted by DJP
    What I want you to do is to answer each of these questions. Don't edit them; let's just leave them to stand. Answer them by yourself; leave comments on other people's for another time.

    The Questions:

    1) Do you think there will be a war with Iraq?


    Yes. Unfortunately.
    2) Do you think it will be based on a UN resolution?

    Yes, if Blair's words in Rome can be believed.
    3) Who do you think will participate?

    USA, UK.
    4) How do you think the following political leaders will stand in 2004? (i.e. what do you think the coming year will do for their reputations?):
    1. George W Bush

    May win the presidential election.
    [*]Tony Blair

    Will suffer from rebuke within the Labour party.
    [*]Saddam Hussein

    Will be dead or in exile.
    [*]Ian Duncan Smith

    Will be usurped as leader or go on to lose the 2005/2006 general election.
    5) Do you think that North Korea will take any further action, and if so, what?


    6) How do you think the economy will respond to the war on Iraq? (Very general question, I know, but try it..)

    Oil prices may rise, which could lead to higher inflation.
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Re: Your predictions
    Originally posted by DJP
    What I want you to do is to answer each of these questions. Don't edit them; let's just leave them to stand. Answer them by yourself; leave comments on other people's for another time.

    The Questions:

    1) Do you think there will be a war with Iraq?

    Yes
    2) Do you think it will be based on a UN resolution?

    Probably
    3) Who do you think will participate?

    US, UK, France, Kuwait, Turkey, Australia
    Possibly Germany, Poland, Syria and Egypt
    4) How do you think the following political leaders will stand in 2004? (i.e. what do you think the coming year will do for their reputations?):
    1. George W Bush

    Reelected in Nov. 2004.
    [*]Tony Blair

    Vindicated
    [*]Saddam Hussein

    Dead or on trial for crimes against humanity
    [*]Jacques Chirac

    Struggling to be seen as being a viable leader
    [*]Ian Duncan Smith

    Don't have any idea
    [*]Charles Kennedy

    Don't have any idea
    5) Do you think that North Korea will take any further action, and if so, what?

    North Korea will continue to bluster. They will not take any action beyond that.
    6) How do you think the economy will respond to the war on Iraq? (Very general question, I know, but try it..)

    Initial result will be a mild recession. Two to three years down the road will be the beginning of a strong economic upturn.
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Re: Your predictions
    Originally posted by DJP
    What I want you to do is to answer each of these questions. Don't edit them; let's just leave them to stand. Answer them by yourself; leave comments on other people's for another time.

    The Questions:

    1) Do you think there will be a war with Iraq?

    2) Do you think it will be based on a UN resolution?

    3) Who do you think will participate?

    4) How do you think the following political leaders will stand in 2004? (i.e. what do you think the coming year will do for their reputations?):
    1. George W Bush
    2. Tony Blair
    3. Saddam Hussein
    4. Jacques Chirac
    5. Ian Duncan Smith
    6. Charles Kennedy

    5) Do you think that North Korea will take any further action, and if so, what?

    6) How do you think the economy will respond to the war on Iraq? (Very general question, I know, but try it..)

    1=yes
    2=doubtful the way things are heading
    3=USA, UK, Iraq likely. Turkey, Kuwait, Syria, Germany possibly.
    4=(BUSH)-Will be reelected but will continue to do incredibly stupid things
    (BLAIR)People will finally realise what a hash he has made of everything and that he cannot be trusted
    (SADDAM)Dead or in hiding
    (CHIRAC)Trying to assert himself unsuccesfully on a world that is sick of the French
    (IAN AND CHARLES)-No opinion/no idea

    5=North Korea will probably do something stupid, either by launching missiles at the South or US bases in Japan, and possibly at the US itself

    6=Massive global recession as oil prices increase and the allies pay the cost of rebuilding Iraq
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Re: Your predictions

    1) I'm afraid so.

    2) The 1 million dollar question. There will be war regardless, but it remains to be seen if the French, Russian and Chinese will veto the resolution. If the Iraqis destroy those missiles I hope that a new resolution will not be passed at present as there would be no reason for it.

    3) Other than the two obvious, token representations from Turkey, Australia and perhaps Germany and France (the latter only if resolution is passed).

    4)
    1. George W Bush: For the sake of mankind, I hope he'll be booted out. And if the US government is not still engaging countries and spreading fears around at the next election I don't think he has much chance of staying.
    2. Tony Blair: OUT!
    3. Saddam Hussein: Dead or in hiding
    4. Jacques Chirac: If he does not wobble and continues his opposition to a (presently) unjustified war, he will be respected across Europe and fare well with his own people. He could have done much better had he not chosen to get cosy with scum like Mugabe. Still, I identify myself with Chirac and the French on this issue much more than the leaders of Great Britain and my own country. And I suspect that feeling is widely spread across Europe.
    5. Ian Duncan Smith: Unfortunately no longer in power. Which is a pity because he's the best warranty of the Tories never winning an election.
    6. Charles Kennedy: Go Charles! May well become the main opposition leader. It'd be stretching it too much to say he'll be the next Prime Minister though.

    5) No. The stand-off and war of words will continue, but little else.

    6) Serious recession for the next 3-4 years, but not all Iraq's fault. Mass hysteria about terrorism and continuing scandals in corporate America will contribute to it as well.
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    1. There will be a war with Iraq lasting a few weeks.

    2. The US and UK will only submit a resolution when they are sure it will pass due to Germany, France and China abstaining.

    3. The backing for Bush and the war went up the weekend of all of the anti-American, socialist, anti-semetic, peace marches and because of France's active disloyalty. It's a 70%...much higher than his dad had before the Gulf war.

    4.As long as Tony Blair can hold 'til the war in March, his popularity will rise as the horrors of Saddam come out with the liberation of Iraq. Right now, I see him as a tragic hero.

    5. No.

    6. Stocks will rise, the economy will recover.

    An aside: This war will not stop terrorism.
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    1) Do you think there will be a war with Iraq? yes
    2) Do you think it will be based on a UN resolution? No
    3) Who do you think will participate?The usual suspects
    4) How do you think the following political leaders will stand in 2004? (i.e. what do you think the coming year will do for their reputations?):

    a) George W Bush – Looking for new investments to acquire
    b) Tony Blair – Jetting across the world trying to save his new flavour of the month
    c)Saddam Hussein – Dead, or will retired
    d)Jacques Chirac – Most likely Selling his soul to the devil
    e)Ian Duncan Smith – Who?!;)
    f)Charles Kennedy- Gaining more power, but not going anywhere fast.

    5) Do you think that North Korea will take any further action, and if so, what?

    Yes I think it will, it’s like a naughty kid seeing how far it can push things before it gets a slap, but I doubt anyone is going to tackle them without the whole western world rallied together. *Ok, I mean US, UK, France, Germany (and Japan and the like) *

    Sent a jet into South Korea the other day didn’t they! Who knows what they might try to get the attention that they are after!

    6) How do you think the economy will respond to the war on Iraq? (Very general question, I know, but try it..) Doesn’t look good, but we kinda know that already. Things may go from bad to worse. But will bounce back like always!
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    ...the weekend of all of the anti-American, socialist, anti-semetic, peace marches

    :rolleyes:
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    He's just dancing like a duly propagandised puppet to the tune the hawks are playing Aladdin. Given his youth and lack of basis for judhement on anything global (let alone national) you have to simply keep hammering away at his thick skull or smile knowingly at him and let him work through his teen angst.
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Originally posted by Clandestine
    He's just dancing like a duly propagandised puppet to the tune the hawks are playing Aladdin. Given his youth and lack of basis for judhement on anything global (let alone national) you have to simply keep hammering away at his thick skull or smile knowingly at him and let him work through his teen angst.

    Oy. Answer before you bitch. :p
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Does my skull look thick? I've been called thin skinned though. :D
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    1) Do you think there will be a war with Iraq?


    Yes

    2) Do you think it will be based on a UN resolution?

    Possibly, it seems very uncertain at the moment

    3) Who do you think will participate?

    Overwhelmingly US and UK + Turkey

    4) How do you think the following political leaders will stand in 2004? (i.e. what do you think the coming year will do for their reputations?):



    George W Bush

    Domestic reputation high, international reputation low

    Tony Blair

    Permanently fucked

    Saddam Hussein

    Dead

    Jacques Chirac

    Domestic high, international low in amongst pro war and high amongst anti war

    Ian Duncan Smith

    Gone

    Charles Kennedy

    OK

    5) Do you think that North Korea will take any further action, and if so, what?

    Carry on making threats but will not take any extreme action, will back down.......

    6) How do you think the economy will respond to the war on Iraq? (Very general question, I know, but try it..)

    UK economy - Short shock from oil price rise and increased govt borrowing plus the NI extra contributions kicking in. Fortunately housing market is cooling so should be able to cut rates and avoid major slump.........

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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Sincerest apologies oh great DJP ;)

    1) Do you think there will be a war with Iraq? I think that is a given

    2) Do you think it will be based on a UN resolution? Given that this invasion was planned by Perle, Cheney, et al long long before Bush Jr. came on the scene, Ive never thought it was about the UN resolutions. Its the oil stupid! :p

    3) Who do you think will participate? US, UK, France, Germany, Kuwait, Yemen, Saudi, Turkey, and others perhaps

    4) How do you think the following political leaders will stand in 2004? (i.e. what do you think the coming year will do for their reputations?):




    George W Bush Hopefully exposed along with Cheney and the gang for the corruption and lying they have perpetrated on the American public. Not to mention Bush's reinstatement of known Felons Elliot Abrams, and John Poindexter and master propgandist Otto Reich from the days of Iran Contra.

    Tony Blair Hopefully tossed out as Party Leader or with Labour's loss at the next general election

    Saddam Hussein: Dead or in exile

    Jacques Chirac: Given the unpredictability of French politics it would depend who the left can put up to run against him. Likely back in again though.

    Ian Duncan Smith: One word "Irrelevant"

    Charles Kennedy: Uncertain



    5) Do you think that North Korea will take any further action, and if so, what? Not likely unless the Bush camp escalates the issue more than they already have.

    6) How do you think the economy will respond to the war on Iraq? (Very general question, I know, but try it..) The economy will continue to suffer as is the penchant with Bush governments. Geopolitical destabilisation will snowball in the Middle East and hatred and terrorism will only increase until Bush and his criminal consorts are replaced with a leadership that no longer panders to ultra right wing likhud policies.
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Everyone seems to concur that Saddam Hussein will not live to see 2004 in Iraq, then...?
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    No... at the moment it's anyone's guess whether he'd be killed in the bombings, captured while trying to escape or simply dissapear and live happily ever after in another country. I don't think they'll get him in the bombing, although they might easily kill him as he's trying to escape the country. If they get the right person though; there seem to be a few identical doubles doing the rounds.
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    I think it more likely he'll be kept around in exile in case he's needed for a boogeyman card later. Mobutu and Idi Amin were exiled and they were as dispicable as Saddam so I dont see him being killed off so readily.
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    I want to be the first one to go on record and predict that America will LOSE the War on Terror just like the Soviet Union. I will make the boldest prediction of all. The U.S. Empire is crumbling and will fall apart within 15 years. At every fundamental social-cultural-political-economic-geopolitical level America is in massive decline, especially since 2001. There is simply no way for it to preserve the system indefinitely. It is rotting at home and it will bankrupt itself abroad - just like the USSR in Afghanistan and the Middle East. America is not in a recession. A recession is a cyclical event. This is a systematic breakdown of the system. Also just like in the USSR the changing demographics in America will be the nail in the coffin of the American Empire. Just like how Rome ignored the Danube America has ignored the Rio Grande. America will bankrupt itself with its foreign adventures, the empire will become to expensive to maintain, the coalition of the bribed will fall apart once the money tap is cut off. The satellites will rebel on the USSR model and the domestic peon underclass of increasingly impoverished whites along with the already impoverished Third World masses will grow increasingly agitated. Once the Empire falls so will America's ego. The United States itself will begin to dissolve. It will happen very very fast. It will be more shocking than the rapid demise of the USSR.
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Heydrich,

    If you prove to be wrong, will you follow in your Fuhrer's footsteps and commit suicide?
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Heydrich, I think you have missed a very important point on the difference between the USSR and the USA.

    Perhaps you should check some history books and see if you can;t work it out for yourself. To help I will direct you - look at the history of the Baltic republics, it might give you a clue as to why they tried to get away from the Soviets...
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Re: Your predictions

    1) Do you think there will be a war with Iraq?

    Little chance of it being stopped now, the wagons are circling and the injun's are coming over the hill...

    2) Do you think it will be based on a UN resolution?

    Yep, thanks to the US bank balance, Saddam's stupidity and Britain's diplomats.

    3) Who do you think will participate?

    Apart from the obvious, there will be a "coalition of forces" - partly because several countries won't want to piss the US off that much, and partly because they actually support them.

    4) How do you think the following political leaders will stand in 2004? (i.e. what do you think the coming year will do for their reputations?):

    George W Bush

    Re-election, without a doubt. It's not like the Democrats have any read opposition to him.

    Tony Blair

    No change. Who's likely to take over?

    Saddam Hussein

    Still alive, unless the US gets some really excellent inteliigance on him. He'll flee.

    Jacques Chirac

    Still around. Still sucking up to ruthless murderous dictators, as he has in Zimbabwe, Iraq and Rwanda. Still chasing European integration, still arrogant.

    Ian Duncan Smith

    Hell, I'm not sure he's going to see out March. If anything I'd give Saddam a little longer that IDS :D

    Charles Kennedy

    Soon to be leader of the opposition.

    5) Do you think that North Korea will take any further action, and if so, what?

    Yes, at some point they are going to cross the [current undefined] line, and the US will be forced to react. I know that NK only wants food, but they will have to make concessions which they aren't currently confident enough to do.

    6) How do you think the economy will respond to the war on Iraq? (Very general question, I know, but try it..)

    Things will be bad for a while, but not because of the war. Oil prices will rise, and then fall dramatically helping the recovery.
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