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UK recession 'at an end'
Former Member
Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
http://www.theherald.co.uk/business/news/display.var.2527025.0.Rise_in_business_confidence_suggests_recession_at_end.php
Well, it's been my thinking all along that many people are blowing this recession business out of proportion in order to justify x y and z opinions about labour / communists / banks / neocons / you name it, so it's heartening to see there may be signs of recovery. Also reassuring, because this is when I predicted the recession would end back for one of my Management projects a few months ago
.
Perhaps they will give me a few extra marks for prescience.
A record recovery in business confidence signals the UK recession "is at an end", according to a leading professional survey, and the latest look at the service sector by the Confederation of British Industry, meanwhile, has found firms "more optimistic".
Well, it's been my thinking all along that many people are blowing this recession business out of proportion in order to justify x y and z opinions about labour / communists / banks / neocons / you name it, so it's heartening to see there may be signs of recovery. Also reassuring, because this is when I predicted the recession would end back for one of my Management projects a few months ago
.Perhaps they will give me a few extra marks for prescience.
0
Comments
It isn't a recession it's a collapse for America and the U.K
But you won't believe it.
The biggests movements of wealth in history have been happening this last ten years and accelerated the last two.
The money moves to where the resources are which includes labour costs.
Think about it.
I'll put money on it that we aint far from gas and electric being rationed in the U.K
and America is falling ...before my eyes ...into total chaos ...quite often happens after a military/financial coup.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8217122.stm
MR, I never know what to make of your posts tbh. They sound prophetical and wise but on the other hand can also be interpreted as unsubstantiated paranoia.
JsT, I don't think things will be right as rain overnight, but this is an apparent indicator that we have hit 'bottom' and now things should be moving upwards again. It might take a while to get back to where we were before, but it's movement in the right direction.
Aladdin, I'm not sure how much a part Gordon Brown played in this. In as much the recession was a product of the international economy, the recovery is also because of that. Of course, he kept people in jobs by spending money which is to be commended (as the people out of work I'm sure will attest to - it's not a nice way to live), but I anticipate he knew this recession would be over relatively quickly and was going to wait until we were well in recovery to hold an election (whereas the conservatives repeatedly were calling for one when we were in recession
The UK relies on trade *so* much that when the rest of the world goes to the shitter, so do we. But also, when the rest of the world does well, so do we. We are in an advantageous position of holding very high skilled workers so we get to dictate the terms of trade in a lot of instances.
Erm .. if the UK is coming out of recession, its only because other countries in a better position have allowed British exports etc gain a market. It has very little to do with Brown. Unemployment is still set to rise, interest rates are still supporting a country in recession and the country is growing in debt. What's there to thank Brown for?
Aladdin, you ignorance is quite surprising. The world understands that the recession originated mainly out of the financial policies followed by the USA and UK. Brown was responsible for binding the hands of the FSA because he wanted more taxes from the financial institutions, thus rendering the FSA ineffectual. This allowed our institutions to gamble with our economic security. And it looks like he is STILL prepared to allow banks etc to gear themselves up for big bonuses etc. Hasn't the cunt learnt anything? No - because he doesn't have to clean up the mess after the next election.
And have you noticed that the countries leading the economic revival are those countries that had manufacturing and industry? Unlike in this country where Brown refused adequate support to these sectors in his quest to cosy up to the City?
You'd be far better off blaming a certain milk-snatcher who was in power some 3 decades ago...
You won't be thanking him for the damage his policies will cause after it, not for being so badly prepared for it (and to be honest lots of other countries have weathered it better, even if some have also weathered it worse).
I must admit I hadn't noticed, perhaps being too preoccupied with watching German output decline ever faster than the UK's.
The worry actually is that we'll put ourselves back into manufacturing (which we're not very good at), rather than financial services where we are. The ultimate result is that the Govt tax-take declines and everyone is worse off.
I also dispute that the recession was caused by the banks - they were the first victims of a slowdown coming, but they did't cause. if anything by providing cheap rates to companies who have since prooved to be poor at repaying, they kept the wolves at bay by artificially propping up failing companies.
:eek2:
To cast the investment banking sector, en bloc (especially in the Anglo-American world) - the shadow sector of which pushed hopelessly optimistic financial products at ridiculous rates to keep the wheel spinning, as victims in this, is so far from the demonstrable circumstances and events of what happened.
To call the most harmful elements in this decade's crisis anything other than what they actually were - a gravy train of irresponsible lending, willful manipulation of risk to increase profit, and a cultural proliferation of excessive risk taking for incredible personal reward - is not only wrong, it is dangerous.
I'm sorry but unless there's something here I've totally missed, it seems like blind faith in unregulated free markets markets of the type which prevented the scrutiny we so badly needed. More sober appreciations of this trend did actually predict this, the problem was that no one was listening - see Hyman Minsky's - even members of the 'Austrian School' of economics (Fredrich Hayek's economic stable) predicted this.
Bastards.
Angry, angry SG.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/seymour062001.html
This is nothing more than a sucker's rally, nearly done on time and price as well....
Fact of the matter is they've tried to prop up the zombie banks at the taxpayer's expense by printing £175 billion, but they still haven't managed to get liquidity rolling again as the zombie banks are hoarding capital to meet even the lax capital ratios. RBS and Lloyds are so skint they're having to setup subsidiaries to offload their bad debts so they can avoid taking a hit by marking to market.
And the fully state owned banks can't even afford to make their interest payments these days, so where's all the money gone..?
There's still no transparency so once all that money has been deleveraged away we are back to square one....except now domestic and global private sector investment is being crowded out by record sovereign bond supply, the UK has a gaping hole in its balance sheet and nothing left for another round of bailouts, game over. No guarantee the IMF will even have anything left by the time we go begging.
I believe one way to help avoid this catastrophe in future is make it a legal responsibility for banks to have enough money to pay back all their depositors in the event of a run - and if they don't, the entire banking board should be hauled into court to explain themselves. And no amount of money will get the bastards off.
On a lighter note, I am particularly liking the term "zombie banks". Conjures up some very unusual images in my warped mind...
:yes:
Interesting post - what would you have done / would liked to have seen happen?
this man knows his stuff...
back to sqaure one as before, with the same lovely bonuses and dodging tax
All I can say is.....BORING! Seriously, this recession shit is so fuckiG DEPRESSING!
OH MY FUCKING GOD....NO WONDER SO MNANY PEOPLE IN THISA COUNTRY SLIT THEIR FUCKING WRISTS,,,,IT'S LIKE EVERYTIME YOU TURN ON THE NEWS IT'S TELLING YOU HOW SHIT YOUR LIFE IS AND HOW FUCKED YOUR FUTURE IS!
Shit the bed guyas, we may aswell fuckign hang ourselves.
I mean for fuckms sake....I'm sop sick of all this bollocks, I know it's a problem but jesus fucking christ....what happened to the love and happiness in this world?
Dya know what I mean???!!!
Three words mate.
Stella and Rum. :shocking:
The governments need to stop backstopping failing institutions, ringfence critical services and let the chips fall where they may. For example the CDS market is still not regulated and without forced transparency the taxpayer has just become another conduit for cashflow to the banks via monsters like AIG. If the media had more honesty and people understood the depth of what's happening under their nose they'd be up in arms quite literally. What they are doing is sacrificing long term economic recovery in favour of fleecing every last penny, then throwing their hands up and claiming noone could have seen it coming. Mark my words, all the risk is now in the sovereign bond markets and failing currencies like Iceland is the next set of dominoes to fall, probably starting in Eastern Europe/Baltics..
I agree with pill'ed btw that all this gloom and doom is not conducive to good health, but if you can see what's coming you can at least prepare your best. I think focusing on physical, mental and spiritual health is more important now than ever and I don't watch TV or pay attention to the media really. It's just another tool for scaring the public, bombarding them with fear, reinforcing insecurities and false egos, and keeping everyone dumb enough so they surrender their true power to big gov to save us.
What this grand universe all comes down to in the end is a choice between fear and love, and the best thing you can do to change the world is work on yourself one step at a time. Stella and rum is certainly one way to expand your consciousness, I'm not sure that's the path I'd take
Weiss Research, Inc.
15430 Endeavour Drive
Jupiter, FL 33478
I get a daily brief off these guys and have done for years ....
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Heres part of another one .....
Dear Subscriber,
The greatest economic convulsion in FIVE CENTURIES is taking place before our very eyes!
For thousands of years, this time-honored economic cycle has struck with alarming regularity: Global economic dominance has shifted from the West to the East every 500 years.
In the most recent cycle, Western Europe — and later, the U.S. — rose to become the dominant economic powers on Earth.
But now, the pendulum is swinging in the opposite direction. With the West burying itself under trillions of dollars in new debt every year and gutting the value of its currencies, the U.S. and Western Europe are, unfortunately, in the early stages of what looks for all the world as if it will be a very long-term decline.
The reality is ...the biggest movements of wealth in history taking place is the super rich are protecting themselves and moving the real wealth to the east.
We can't survive any longer on financial services ...shuffling paper for others ...it's all gone east.
All the ships are heading east and they no longer even need the west as customers.
Me ...Clandestine and the guy who said there were no such things as countries ...said this is what was happening ...five years ago on here?
The days of Anglo American dominence of markets are finished.
We have nothing left to offer the world ...nothing at all.
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The reality ......
Why settle for the world’s 14th most profitable stocks?
1. India UP 202.2%
2. Brazil UP 143.4%
3. China UP 111.5%
4. Russia UP 81.7%
5. South Korea UP 74.3%
6. Hong Kong UP 49.6%
7. Singapore UP 30.6%
8. Spain UP 21.2%
9. Germany UP 18.7%
10. Australia UP 11.9%
11. New Zealand UP 3.7%
12. UK DOWN 4.8%
13. France DOWN 15.9%
14. USA DOWN 19.4%
With impressive returns like these being earned as China, East Asia, India, Russia, and Brazil rise to global dominance, no reasonable investor should settle for the meager returns — and probably larger long-term risks — in the S&P, the Dow, Nasdaq, or any other U.S. stock market index.
Why would you settle for a trifling gain or risk a huge loss with a Dow or S&P index fund when you could literally multiply your money in countries whose economies are leaving ours in the dust?
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21st Century Economic Superpower #1:
CHINA!
China's economic growth is not only the fastest among all major nations, it's also the most sustainable.
In the first quarter of 2009, for example, while the U.S. was shrinking at an annual pace of 6.4%, China's GDP was growing at an annual pace of 6.1%.
Still think theres a global recession taking place?
If so ...where you getting your information from?
Here in North Wales Hotpoint have closed their factory down after generations of manufacturing here ...the economic situation being the reason given.
The economic situation ...not the recession notice.
They have opened a new plant thats bigger than ever and are advertising for workers ...hundreds and hundreds of them.
The people buying washing machines are now in the east ...the raw materials are more available and cheaper.
The wages and other costs are much lower.
The market is massive ...billions of Eurasion customers ...billions of them.
There is no recession.
There is a massive historical shift in wealth and power ...to the east.
This is the decline of the west.
If you don't agree with this ...tell me one thing ...what does the U.K have to offer the world in this new global situation?
To be fair the UK has given me a lot of opportunities and experience the last 4 years and I am grateful for that, especially London, I just think it's sad where things are headed...truth is you can get a better quality of life elsewhere.
I love Singapore, wouldn't mind moving out there someday myself. You go on a business visa?
What you say is sadly true... you can get a better quality of life elsewhere, I found this from my year in Australia and they've been hit by the GFC too, though no way near as badly as us it seems.
However this is my home, and I'm positive things will turn around soon enough. As you said, the UK can provide many great opportunities and experiences.
Shit, even if the evidence goes against my positive thinking, someone has to be thinking it!
Yep I got a pretty good offer lined up, Gordon Brown ain't getting his hands on my pennies anymore :wave:
Just to clarify I said the UK has provided, with the emphasis on the past tense
As you said very accurately I guess what's important isn't so much the economy or anything like that but rather being able to enjoy life. For the average joe despite their moaning the UK still affords a not too uncomfortable way of life, although I know for a fact other places are nicer, it can be tricky because of the spread of wealth in those countries (i.e. over here you are relatively better off being a low paid employee i.e. retail assistant, than in other countries - but if you are a top accountant you probably make more in relative purchasing power terms than over here).
Really jealous of you