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Flu pandemic here?

2

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  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Once again that theory (based on research by AW Hedrich in the 1930s) is inaccurate.
    Herd immunity doesn't work? What are you basing that on?
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Unfortunately I'm still waiting to die of BSE, ebola, SARS and bird flu, not to mention brain cancer from my mobile phone and breast cancer from my underarm deodorant, so swine flu will have to join the back of a long queue of media-led empty health worries. Although I noticed they have been referring to it as 'the DEADLY swine flu', which I assume makes it all the more scary.

    I appreciate that pandemics are a real risk, but as usual, the media is making a mountain out of a molehill, so as we don't really know how exaggerated these stories are, I'm going to file them behind bird flu and carry on with my life until such a time as I start oinking and drop dead. :thumb:
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Herd immunity doesn't work? What are you basing that on?

    The facts, as I know of them.

    The herd immunity theory was originally coined in 1933 by a researcher called AW Hedrich, who had been studying measles patterns in the US between 1900-1931. The figures suggested to him that epidemics of the illness only occurred when less than 68% of children had developed a natural immunity to it. This was before any vaccination drug had been developed and based upon the principle that children build their own immunity after suffering with or being exposed to the disease. So the herd immunity theory was, in fact, about natural disease processes and nothing to do with vaccination. His theory published in the American Journal of Epidemiology, May 1933 concluded that if 53% of the population were allowed to build their own natural defences, there would be no raging epidemic.

    The herd immunity phrase was adopted by corporations with pharmaceutical connections and increased the figure from 53% to 55% with no scientific justification as to why.Over the years the figure has crept up to 95%.Essentially, Hedrich’s study appears to have been manipulated to promote vaccination programmes.

    Of course that makes commercial sense.
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Aladdin wrote: »
    I'm just in complete shock that Stargalaxy or the tabloid press haven't blamed Gordon Brown for the swine flu yet. Standards are falling...

    How's about this?
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    The facts, as I know of them.

    The herd immunity theory was originally coined in 1933 by a researcher called AW Hedrich, who had been studying measles patterns in the US between 1900-1931. The figures suggested to him that epidemics of the illness only occurred when less than 68% of children had developed a natural immunity to it. This was before any vaccination drug had been developed and based upon the principle that children build their own immunity after suffering with or being exposed to the disease. So the herd immunity theory was, in fact, about natural disease processes and nothing to do with vaccination. His theory published in the American Journal of Epidemiology, May 1933 concluded that if 53% of the population were allowed to build their own natural defences, there would be no raging epidemic.

    The herd immunity phrase was adopted by corporations with pharmaceutical connections and increased the figure from 53% to 55% with no scientific justification as to why.Over the years the figure has crept up to 95%.Essentially, Hedrich’s study appears to have been manipulated to promote vaccination programmes.

    Of course that makes commercial sense.
    So you're saying the entire theory of herd immunity by vaccination is based on one study from 1933? You say yourself the term was coined there, but it seems strange that no subsequent research has been carried out. At university I was taught the theory of herd immunity is both widely accepted and scientifically valid. While I hadn't read through the primary sources at the time, on reading there have been many studies since on the mathematics, theory and evidence for herd immunity. The herd immunity threshold, H, is based on the formula 1-1/R0, where R0 is the reproduction rate of the pathogen. This gives H for most organisms in the 80-100% range. There is a good review here.
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    I didn't think it would be long before the conspiracy theory nutters start speaking crap.

    This quite possibly the most dumb thing I have read, the guy is a person hater me thinks. http://www.prisonplanet.com/swine-flu-attack-likely-a-beta-test.html

    It's a funny read though.
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    As with Diana, I think Interflora did it.

    :yes:
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Surely is a Jewish conspiracy? Or even a Muslim one? I mean, it is a pig flu... ;)
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Aladdin wrote: »
    Surely is a Jewish conspiracy? Or even a Muslim one? I mean, it is a pig flu... ;)

    Oh god, I was watching the news before and they were talking about the reaction in Israel. They said the only thing they'd decided was that they would call it swine flu, despite opposition from the more orthadox members of government who wanted to call it Mexico flu because pigs are unclean. :rolleyes: You can always count of them to get to the real issues.
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    its getting a little scary, we've all been warned that a lecturer has come down with potencial swine flu (she's just come back from mexico, and thus i think we have pretty good reason to be worried), and thus we need to be on the look out. its lucky that we have a hospital next door but still...

    things spread fast in uni...
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    So far though the only cases in the UK and other countries have been in people who have returned from Mexico. There haven't been any cases of it spreading between people over here just yet, which means lots of people think there may be another agent at work in Mexico.
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    All I know is I'm going to feel like a right twat if we all die of it.

    I've been making oink noises all day at my coughing colleague.
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Pah. All you need is some oinkment to get rid of it.

    It's all hogwash if you ask me.
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Aladdin wrote: »
    It's all hogwash if you ask me.
    Someone been telling porkies?

    Oh dear.
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    people have been recovering from it when taking tamiflu, so i doubt even if it becomes widespread many will die from it...
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Aladdin wrote: »
    I'm just in complete shock that Stargalaxy or the tabloid press haven't blamed Gordon Brown for the swine flu yet. Standards are falling...
    Guido Fawkes is now blaming Jonah for it. :p
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Kermit wrote: »
    All I know is I'm going to feel like a right twat if we all die of it.

    I've been making oink noises all day at my coughing colleague.

    Lol, I stepped over the PC line today when I prodded my friend as a hispanic looking fellow was coughing hehe.

    Although why is it called swine flu instead of mexico flu when the spanish flu was called the spanish flu... just mindless pondering there.
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    So you're saying the entire theory of herd immunity by vaccination is based on one study from 1933? You say yourself the term was coined there, but it seems strange that no subsequent research has been carried out. At university I was taught the theory of herd immunity is both widely accepted and scientifically valid. While I hadn't read through the primary sources at the time, on reading there have been many studies since on the mathematics, theory and evidence for herd immunity. The herd immunity threshold, H, is based on the formula 1-1/R0, where R0 is the reproduction rate of the pathogen. This gives H for most organisms in the 80-100% range. There is a good review here.


    The Hedrich research was based on natural immunity, and not artificially induced toxins.
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Well the WHO has raised the pandemic alert to "Level 5" which means there is sustained person-to-person transmission in at least two countries other than the original country (so, Spain + USA then). Some news outlets are saying that the WHO are saying that a Pandemic is imminent:
    BBC wrote:
    It is a "strong signal that a pandemic is imminent", the WHO says.

    According to wikipedia again (I follow the stats because it's the only online tracker I could find)

    Totals
    =======
    Deaths (Suspected): 9 (168)
    Infections (Suspected): 265 (3,964+)

    I don't know how likely a suspected person is to actually have it though. I guess we will have to wait and see. Apparently through some hearsay Mexico has had a bit of a media blackout and they've known about this for over a month and have been trying to hush it up, all medical employees in mexico again apparently are banned from talking to the press, and the government gives press conferences that basically consist of a speech and a smile for the cameras.
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    If I get it, I'll make sure all you get it with me.
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    If I get it, I'll make sure all you get it with me.

    So far it seems the majority of people who get it whether they have treatment or not recover absolutely fine just like it was a normal flu.

    What I've heard again through the grapevine so nothing official from medical peeps is just quiet caution - they think it *could potentially* get serious but isn't there yet. But no need to take unnecessary risks like holding an international conference in Mexico City right now. They don't seem to be laughing it off as scaremongering either though.
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Thousands of people die each year from flu anyway, this is just one extra thing in the melting pot of life.
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    I am not saying people are starting to panic, but when the woman on the tube started sneezing, the carriage didn't half empty quick :D
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Calvin wrote: »
    I am not saying people are starting to panic, but when the woman on the tube started sneezing, the carriage didn't half empty quick :D

    I've noticed that too, and I'm a really sneezy person. Thumbs up for my new found personal space :thumb:
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Calvin wrote: »
    I am not saying people are starting to panic, but when the woman on the tube started sneezing, the carriage didn't half empty quick :D

    *so doing this* :D
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    ...
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    I normally cycle into work, but today I was forced to take the tube. Am I going to die?!
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    I normally cycle into work, but today I was forced to take the tube. Am I going to die?!

    Yes, you are! In 2066!
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    lol

    http://worldblog.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2009/04/30/1915246.aspx

    300,000 pigs * $45 a pig = $13.5M

    down the drain hahaha. Thing is the flu isn't spread from pig to human, it's spread from human to human! The reason it's called swine flu is because the flu virus has mutated, taking some human flu dna h1n1 and some swine flu dna or something along those lines anyway. In theory making it a 'superflu' but then they realised that in all probability it's not going to be that dangerous, it will just be like normal flu that you catch and get better. At least that's the hope at the minute.

    Reminds me of this:
    X4jaqo.jpg.gif
    (from the game Pandemic 2 where madagascar only has a port and as soon as you have a visible infection anywhere they just close the port and then you can't win the game lol)
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    ShyBoy wrote: »
    lol

    http://worldblog.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2009/04/30/1915246.aspx

    300,000 pigs * $45 a pig = $13.5M

    down the drain hahaha.

    I did not find the story as amusing as you.

    It looks like the "herd" of Tamiflu will not need to be destroyed like those pigs. Although other governments are in similar positions the farmer in this case is the UK government,who has been looking after it for close on three years.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/donald-rumsfeld-makes-5m-killing-on-bird-flu-drug-469599.html

    According to the manufacturers,Roche,the shelf life of tamiflu is 3 years. Just in the nick of time for that 14.6 million flock ?
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