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Mugabe - posthumus

Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
in Politics & Debate
Seeing as its topical at the moment (and important even when its not) i put to the forum:

what do people think will happen to Zimbabwe when Mugabe dies?

Is he so much of a figure head that the regime will die down? or will e simply be replaced?

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    Dr PirateDr Pirate Posts: 8,303 Legendary Poster
    With regards to this subjuct, I'd have to say that it'd be more at home in the Politics and Debate forum.
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    **helen****helen** Deactivated Posts: 9,235 Supreme Poster
    Agreed - moving it there now.
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    DrZork101 wrote: »
    what do people think will happen to Zimbabwe when Mugabe dies?

    Is he so much of a figure head that the regime will die down? or will e simply be replaced?

    Look at the record in other countries. Raul Castro, Kim Jong Il, etc. Past records suggest that someone else would step into the role quite quickly and without much opposition.

    And don't get my hopes with that title. I thought he'd been shot.
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Zimbabwe is run on tribal grounds. Mugabe, a Shona, is propped up by his Shona colleagues and generals. The Sindebele are the smaller tribe, around 7:1, that are taking the main brunt of Mugabe's violence.
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Its difficult to say, it depends how much further he can push whats left of the economy into the ground. The whole country may well fall completely apart before he even dies, if he hasnt the money or access to food he wont keep the army and the 'veterans' on his side forever.

    As to the more broader point of what we do - I personally dont think there is a lot we can do.

    If we step in with military force (do we actually have any spare) it will be seen as a colonial oppresser.

    Sanctions dont harm a country as damaged as Zimbabwe so they are useless.

    Pressure is unlikely to come from the AU, and even if it did there isnt much they can do either.

    South Africa is obviously reluctant to take any serious steps for fear of even more illegal immigration, there is already over a million Zimbabwians in SA.

    Personally I see it getting worse and worse till he dies or is taken by a general.
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    From what the papers are saying the military has taken over and Mugabe is now just a figurehead. Won't matter whether he stays or goes...
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    No doubt he would be replaced. I think who ever replaces him though will lose power pretty fast.

    He will lose power full stop very soon, the people will either get so cheesed off they will have a full on up rising. Or another country will take military action, or he'll be assasinated.
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    It's very hard to tell. If he keeps the military, the police and his supporters on-side, we'll just see the reigns of power being handed over to some unelected tosspot who'll be out of his depth in the job. But that's enough about Gordon Brown...

    If they turn against him, it could be a lot more bloody.
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    Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,323 The Mix Honorary Guru
    stargalaxy wrote: »
    It's very hard to tell. If he keeps the military, the police and his supporters on-side, we'll just see the reigns of power being handed over to some unelected tosspot who'll be out of his depth in the job. But that's enough about Gordon Brown...

    If they turn against him, it could be a lot more bloody.

    You incorrectly assume that Mugabe was legitimately elected last time :chin:
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