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URGENT stats problem

Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,324 The Mix Honorary Guru
can anyone help with a stats question...

a company is looking for oil or gas holes in a virgin basin.
The success ratio of finding a hole is 10% per hole.

what is the probability of the exploration being a total failure (i.e. not finding any holes at all?)

the way i did it was:
if each hole has 10% success, then it has 90% failure
so i did 0.9x0.9x0.9x0.9x0.9 which gives 0.59049

is this correct?
cheers

Comments

  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,324 The Mix Honorary Guru
    your question and method is confusing...

    they have a virgin basin, in which they drill to find gas / oil.

    there is a 10% chance per drill hole, that they find gas / oil.

    you dont say how many times they drill in the basin... but given you've multiplied 0.9 by 5, I guess they tried 5 times?
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,324 The Mix Honorary Guru
    That looks correct if there are 5 holes drilled.

    Total failure = 0.9^5 = 0.59049 = 59.049% (or 59%, as the question implies)

    Then you can do the thingy,

    fffff = 1 * 0.9^5 *0.1^0
    ffffp = 5 * 0.9^4 * 0.1^1
    fffpp = 10 * 0.9^3 * 0.1^2
    ffppp = 10 * 0.9^2 * 0.1^3
    fpppp = 5 * 0.9^1 * 0.1^4
    ppppp = 1 * 0.9^0 * 0.1^5

    I think.
  • Former MemberFormer Member Posts: 1,876,324 The Mix Honorary Guru
    Thank you so much for the help you posted, on this and the previous problem. My understanding of probability theory is pathetic, it really is. The coursework was due today and its handed in.

    Thanx Again
    Steve
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